On the axis of this new rearmament there are already a million dead in the war in Ukraine. The numbers may be slightly lower or higher, but in any case hundreds of thousands would be killed and injured on both sides. Donald Trump was elected President of the United States and quickly began to push for a ceasefire – in his own style, he had to focus on the issue in 24 hours – but they have been talking for weeks and progress is scarce. However, both countries are interested in the ceasefire, as well as the United States that lends money, and everything indicates that they will achieve it at all costs. The status of the negotiations at this stage is discussed in the following paragraphs.

“The war is over” is the belief of American economist
Jeffrey Sachs. He has a life where he can know something. He was the architect of the brutal liberalism that took effect in Russia in 1992, and since then he has been closely following the relations between the US, the EU, Ukraine and Russia, often on the ground as a consultant. This is what he said in a speech to the European Parliament in February: “The war is over. So please get it out of your head. Please tell your friends that it’s over.” Most analysts and diplomats share this view.

Ukraine is losing out when
Russia entered Ukraine in February 2022, calling the invasion a “special military operation.” In a short time he planned to take Kiev, to force a change of mandate, and in particular to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Ukraine, on the other hand, responded strongly and, with the military support of the West, rejected Russian forces, leading the war mainly to the southeast of Ukraine. The Ukrainian counterattack in 2023 went very badly for him. In 2024, on the other hand, it successfully occupied the Kursk area of Russia, but then it failed and Russia has recovered almost all of it in a few months. Russia currently controls 18% of the territory of Ukraine. Even from the point of view of economic and demographic resources, Russia can withstand the war much better than Ukraine. International economic sanctions are hurting Russia badly, but the Kremlin has responded to them better than we thought.

Menia needs time, according to the signing in
Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and Russia have agreed to an agreement not to attack energy infrastructures, but it is not complying. The two sides also agreed not to operate militarily in the Black Sea, but the agreement has not entered into force, mainly because Russia has imposed conditions to lift economic sanctions linked to agricultural exports, and although the US agrees, Ukraine and the European Union are absent. The Russians want the war that bleeds the country to end, but they have gained a solid advantage built up little by little and are not willing to reach any agreement. Everything indicates that they will take the time to negotiate and that, rather than a deep peace, a long truce will take place. During this time both parties will have the opportunity to rearm.

The lost territories?
In eastern Ukraine, most of the regions of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia are under Russian rule. Crimea was conquered in 2014, the other two were recognized by Moscow as autonomous Russian republics before the invasion, and the last two in September 2022. It is the most thorny problem of the war in Ukraine, it requires Russia to accept that they are theirs, but Ukraine will not accept this, and neither will the European Union, as it says today. The formula between North Korea and South Korea, where they have been living in a long truce since 1953, is cited as a solution. There is no absolute peace, the danger of war is always upon us, but there is a state of peace. According to the formula, a division is made between territories that is not considered a border, and a demilitarized land area is consolidated both on one side and on the other, under the supervision of foreign forces. For many, Ukraine had already accepted a certain degree of territorial loss – Donbass – in the negotiations at the beginning of the war, but Europe and the US asked it not to accept it and pushed it to war. He also lost the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.

NATO: Finally outside Ukraine has
been studying NATO’s entry into Ukraine since 2008, but Russia has always warned that this would be a big mistake. It is implied that in the ceasefire negotiations it is already accepted that Ukraine will not join NATO. In return, NATO and the European Union in particular will continue to provide Ukraine with military strength. To this end, Kiev will strengthen its agreements with several countries, including France, the United Kingdom and Germany. Once the truce is reached, France and the United Kingdom are ready to send soldiers, but Russia does not accept them, and would consider them enemies. Previously, both in the Minsk agreements of 2015 and in the peace negotiations in Turkey during the first weeks of the war, the NATO agreement was quite clear.