The end of the Syrian Arab Republic has caused great surprise at the way in which it has taken place: fast and almost without resistance. However, it is not so strange when we consider that the country was destroyed, impoverished and trodden. Most Syrians have long been concerned not about who is in power, but about surviving.

In 2018, the fronts of war more or less stabilized and the priority shifted from the military to reconstruction. But the most productive territories of agriculture and, above all, oil and gas, which until now were in the hands of the United States Army, were outside the control of the Syrian Arab Republic. To that must be added the sanctions and blockade against Syria from the Western countries and the sporadic bombardments in Israel. In this context, first came the COVID-19 pandemic and then the 2023 earthquake. Both corruption and the inefficiency of the State deepened the economic disaster.

For a long time, the struggle in Syria has become the main axis between non-confessional nationalism and Sunni Islamism. On the one hand, there are different political movements and ideological positions that have conflicts between them and, in general, there is a great ethnic diversity that has a political impact on the country. However, the State has been able to capitalize on the fear of minorities and non-confessional sectors at times of radical Islamism. Therefore, in 2011, 2012 and 2013, various sectors, some in protests against the government, mobilized in the war for the sovereignty and multi-confessionalism of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Ten years later, however, few have supported the government. A regime can hardly be legitimised if a large majority of the population lives in misery. In such situations, the defenders of a plural Syria more easily recall the authoritarianism or corruption of the regime than multi-confessionalism and sovereignty. That doesn't automatically mean that most Syrians support Islamist extremism; no, simply, most have decided to see what the new authority is going to do in Syria. The success or failure of this will probably be measured in the economic sphere and not so much in the loss of the rights of women and minorities.

Meanwhile, from a sovereign and geopolitical point of view, the Syrian disaster continues. Turkey has achieved a major victory, as the Islamists, supported by it, are the backbone of its new government. At least the part of Syria that controls Ankara indirectly will extend to Aleppo.

Washington is delighted to see that its strategy of economic drowning has been a success and has affected Iran and Russia. However, Turkey can get into trouble with its government in Turkey, at least for fear. If the new government has to do something about the economy, it needs oil and gas, so, and under pressure from Ankara, the Kurdish allies in Washington have a difficult future.

Another winner is Israel. In recent weeks there have been hundreds of bombings in Syria and the extension of the Syrian territories that it controls with new occupations is expanding. It is known that Tel Aviv has had at least one tactical ally of Islamist extremism in the region and, for the time being, the new Syrian authority has declared that it wants to maintain good relations with Israel. The main victim will be Palestine, as the Syrian Arab Republic was its main ally and the axis of the resistance, grounded from Iran to Palestine, has been broken.