Trumpkonomy
It is not an easy task to define what the new US mandate will bring in the economic sphere. The axis of the new economic strategy will be the peculiar union between liberalism and protectionism for the external sector. Despite what has happened in the United States on a regular basis, on this occasion there is a risk of bringing these two opposite economic lines to the extreme.
It remains to be seen how far the new government will lead the liberal orthodoxy. The implementation of the ultra-conservative project as a whole by 2025 will be impossible. But its main lines will be maintained, at least, along the following lines: reducing social and administrative expenditure, anti-migration policy, measures to strengthen fossil fuels, reducing taxes and protectionism.
The macroeconomic situation left by the Biden Government is good in terms of employment, growth and inflation, but it is perverse in terms of public accounts. In fact, according to the World Bank, US public debt is one of the highest in history and data on budget deficit and external debt are not better.
The problem is that the tax burden in the United States is very low, it is below most of the countries of the European Union. In addition, Trump has announced a significant tax cut. Trump has said that cutting revenue from lowering taxes would offset the decline in green economy aid and customs revenue. But there is no doubt that the fall in taxes will bring with it an increase in the budget deficit and in debt. One factor alleviates the problem of the structural debt of the United States, the hegemonic position of the dollar on the international level. One of the goals of BRICS+ is to address this dollar hegemony. If that were to happen in the medium term, the United States would not be able to maintain its huge global creditor position.
The macroeconomic situation left by the Biden Government is positive in employment, growth and inflation, but perverse in terms of public accounts.
In any case, the U.S. economy remains very powerful, with leading technology companies, including the military, and powerful financial institutions. For example, large American companies have control over the entire value chain of artificial intelligence and over a third of the profits of transnational corporations in exile. The hegemony of the United States over the world economy is not suddenly going to run out, but China’s rapid technological dynamism casts a shadow on it. That explains, at least in part, Trump’s passionate protectionist alignment.
It should be noted that Elon Musk also has a personal interest in it. Strengthening protection is an effective tool to improve the business performance of the newly appointed head of the Department of Government Efficiency. This would avoid China’s direct confrontation with its car, the Tesla, which is theirs. So, Trump wants to leave behind the era of multilateralism with a shot at the wave of trade liberalization in recent decades. The motto America first is identified with the unilateral international position.
Another feature of the new government is the denial of the climate emergency. The former President of the Generalitat has expressed his intention to abandon the Paris agreement as he did in his first term. It has a clear roadmap to leave or hinder multilateral international bodies and forums. II. The risk of collapse of the Western Bretton Woods regulatory framework after the World War is obvious. Although multilateral construction so far is highly critical, the loss of shared management institutions and forums will lead to generalized unilateralism and a growing conflict in the international economy.
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