More than 120 years have passed since the idea of imposing a Jewish state in an Arab Muslim country in the Middle East was created. Will the Palestinian Zionist project succeed in averting the disaster? History has taught us that there are many factors that can endanger a state. It may be the result of continued attacks or the chronic civil war of neighbouring countries. It may be a consequence of the collapse of public institutions, which have lost the ability to provide services to citizens. Often, a slow process of disintegration starts, it takes speed and then, in a short time, the structures that once seemed strong and firm collapse.

The hardest thing is to detect the first indicators. I am going to argue here that in the case of the State of Israel there are more indications than ever. We are witnessing a historic process or, more specifically, the beginning of a process, and it will surely end with the decline of Zionism. And if my diagnosis is correct, the situation being created is going to be particularly dangerous. And that is that, once Israel realizes the size of the crisis, it will release a brutal and uninhibited force to try to resist the crisis, as the apartheid regime in South Africa has done in recent days.

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The breakdown of Israeli Jewish society is the first indicator that can be made known. Today there are two sides, the enemies of each other, and they are not able to find a common territory. Judaism is defined as different nationalism, and that is where the source of rupture lies. The religious and lay sides have theoretically discussed Jewish identity in Israel, but it has not been enough. But now the same nature of the public sphere and the state comes into play. This struggle occurs not only in the media, but also in the streets.

One of the sides will be called the State of Israel. It consists of European Jews and their descendants, more lay, more liberal and, above all, although not always, middle-class. They were decisive in the creation of the State in 1948 and were hegemonic until the end of the last century. Make no mistake, their defence of “liberal democratic values” does not influence the system of apartheid imposed on all Palestinians from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean. Their basic desire is for Jewish citizens to live in a democratic and pluralistic society in which the Arabs are excluded.

The other side is called the “State of Judea” and takes place among the occupied settlers of the West Bank. He has more and more support in Israel, and this was the social base that guaranteed Netanyahu the victory in the November 2022 elections. The influence of this side on the high levels of the Army and the security services of Israel is growing exponentially. The State of Judea wants Israel to become a theocracy, spread throughout historic Palestine. To achieve this, they are prepared to minimize the number of Palestinians and the construction of a Third Temple in the al-Aqsa area is planned. The members of this side believe that this way the golden age of the Bible Kingdoms will be renewed. For them, the lay Jews who resign from this mission are as heretical as the Palestinians.

The two sides had begun violent clashes before 7 October. During the first weeks after the assault, it appeared that the differences between them had dissipated before a common enemy. But it was an illusion. Street struggles have risen and it is difficult to see how they can be reconciled. What could be expected is happening in front of our eyes. Since October, more than half a million Israelis have left the country in support of the “State of Israel”. The State of Judea is devouring Israel. The Arab world is not going to accept this political project, and perhaps the world in general, in the long term.

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The second indicator of the report is the economic crisis in Israel, according to EiTB. In a permanent armed conflict, the political class does not appear to have any plan to balance public finances, unless there is increasing dependence on American economic aid. In the last quarter of last year, the economy fell by almost 20%, and since then, the recovery has become more fragile. The USD 14 billion pledged by Washington does not seem to turn the situation around. On the contrary, the economic burden will only get worse if Israel goes ahead with its plans to enter into war with Hezbollah, while its military activity in the West Bank is increasing. It should be borne in mind that some countries, such as Turkey and Colombia, have begun to apply economic sanctions.

Moreover, the lack of capacity of the finance minister, Bertel Smotrich, only exacerbates the crisis. However, he does not appear to be able to run his department. The conflict between the State of Israel and the State of Judea, coupled with the events of 7 October, is causing some of the economic and financial elite to carry capital outside the State. In Israel, 20 per cent of the population pays 80 per cent of taxes, and a significant portion of that 20 per cent is thinking of relocating their investments.

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The third indicator is that Israel is becoming increasingly isolated internationally and is gradually becoming a pariah state. This process began before 7 October, but has intensified since the beginning of the genocide. Proof of this is the positions of the unprecedented International Court of Justice (ICC) and the International Criminal Court (ICC). So far, the global solidarity movement with Palestine had already got people involved in boycott initiatives, but failed to make progress in the area of international sanctions. In most countries, political and economic leaders continued to support Israel altogether.

In this context, the latest decisions of the NJA and the NZA – which may be genocide, which must stop the Rafah offensive, which the Israeli authorities must be arrested for war crimes – must be seen as an attempt to take account of the opinion of world civil society, and not as a mere reflection of the opinion of the elites. The courts have not relieved the violent attacks on the inhabitants of Gaza and the West Bank. But they have helped to strengthen the chorus of criticism with the State of Israel, which is increasingly coming from above and below.

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The fourth indicator related to this is the radical change that has taken place in young Jews around the world. Following the events of the last nine months, it appears that it is prepared to liberate its link with Israel and Zionism and to participate actively in the solidarity movement with Palestine. Jewish communities, especially those in the United States, gave Israel effective immunity from criticism. The loss or partial loss of such protection has significant consequences on the status of the country in the world. AIPAC [the US Zionist lobby] will still have the help of Christian Zionists, but it will not be the same huge institution without a significant number of Jewish voters. The power of the lobby is eroding.

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Fifth indicator: weakness of the Israeli army. There is no doubt that the IDF remains a powerful force, with state-of-the-art weaponry at hand. However, its limits were discovered on 7 October. Many Israelis believe that the army was very lucky, because the situation could have been worse if Hezbollah had joined in a coordinated attack. Since then, Israel has made it clear that it has a huge dependence on a US-led coalition to defend itself against Iran’s interests. In April, Iran launched a pre-warned attack using 170 unmanned aircraft, as well as ballistic and manned missiles, the Iranian Government reported. More than ever, the Zionist project needs to quickly send the Americans a huge amount of arms supplies. Without them, I would not be able to fight, even against a small army of southern guerrillas.

The Jews in the country generally feel that Israel is not prepared and that it is not able to defend itself. This approach has generated great pressure to eliminate the military exception of the ultra-orthodox Jews, which was in force since 1948, and to start recruiting thousands of them. This will hardly change things on the battlefield, but it is a sign of pessimism about the army and that has accentuated political divisions within Israel.

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Last indicator: Energy has been renewed among the youngest Palestinian generations. Youth is much more united, organically more connected, and has a much clearer vision than the political elite of Palestine. Given that the population of Gaza and the West Bank is one of the youngest in the world, this group will have a major influence on the evolution of the liberation struggle. The ongoing discussions among the Palestinian youth groups show concern about how to create a truly democratic organization. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) can be renewed or a completely new organization, but it should have a different approach of emancipation, antithetical to the campaign of the Palestinian National Authority which seeks to be recognized as a State. It seems that they prefer the solution of a single State to that of two reputable States.

Will they be able to respond effectively to the collapse of Zionism? It is a difficult question to answer. After the collapse of a state project, there is not always a brighter alternative. Elsewhere in the Middle East, such as Syria, Yemen and Libya, we have seen how bloody and long the results can be. This would be a process of decolonization in this case, and the last century has shown us that post-colonial realities do not always improve the colonial situation. The strength and strength of the Palestinians can only lead us forward in the right direction. I believe that sooner or later, when all these indicators come together, the situation will be broken and the Palestinian Zionist project will be destroyed. When this happens, let us hope that a strong liberation movement will fill the void.

For more than 56 years, the process leading nowhere has been called the “peace process.” It has been a set of Israeli initiatives, and the Palestinians have always been asked to react. Today, “peace” must be replaced by decolonization, the Palestinians must be able to articulate their vision of their territory and ask the Israelis to react. It would be the first time, at least for decades, that the Palestinian movement took the initiative and put forward its proposal to explain the type of post-colonial and non-Zionist Palestine (which has the name it has) that they want. In doing so, it will surely look at Europe (perhaps the Swiss cantons and the Belgian model), or rather at the old structures of the Eastern Mediterranean, where secularised religious groups gradually became ethnic groups, living in the same territory.

Even if people like this idea or fear it, the collapse of Israel has become a hopeful thing. This option should condition the debate on the long-term future of the region. It is gaining weight when people realise that the attempt to impose a Jewish state in an Arab country that has lasted a century, led by the United Kingdom and the United States, is slowly coming to an end. It was successful enough to create a society composed of millions of settlers, many of whom now belong to the second and third generation. But, as when they arrived, to ensure their presence, they have to impose their will by force on millions of indigenous people, and the indigenous have never given up the struggle for self-determination and the freedom of their homeland. In the coming decades, the settlers will have to abandon this approach and show their willingness to live on an equal footing in a free and decolonized Palestine.