The people on the left and all the citizens who do not want the French Parliament on the far right have breathed that night on 7 July. It has taken air because for a week it has been possible for the NB to step back from being the first force to the third. But let us not hide the eyes of joy and ignorance: it has not been for a week because the voters of the RN have been convinced. It has been achieved because the "republican vote" has worked: people have voted to cut the way to the extreme right, in the ideal to their favorite and in the worst case, by chance and against the will in favor of the equivalent of the RN.

But how long will that wall be standing? In the 2002 presidencies, the right-wing Jacques Chirac imposed Jean-Marie Le Pen in 82.21%, in 2017 Emmanuel Macron in 66.10% against Marine Le Pen and in 2022 Macron in 58.55% of the votes. Always standing, the wall of the Republican vote, one of the causes of this weakening of Macron in the handling of speeches, legislations and measures of the extreme right, because the border of the right and the extreme right is not as clear as in the past.

Moreover, between the two rounds more and more voters are returning to the extreme right area: In the second round of that year there were 700,000 more than in the first round of 2002, the number increased by 3,000,000 between the two laps of 2017 and by 5,000,000 between the two laps of 2022.

The far right has a solid foundation and all elections are open to new voters. The RN obtained 8.74 million votes in the first round of the Basque Parliament and 7.76 million in the European elections, compared to 13.29 million in the second round for the presidential elections in 2022. This development is reflected in his position at the National Assembly, which had eight seats in 2017, 88 in 2022 and 142 at this stage.

There are many articles of interest in the French media that analyze that vote that goes to the far right. As the fracture increases, it also spreads and the sociological profile of the NB is not as homogeneous as in the past. The Libération newspaper has an interview with Brice Teinturier, from the research office Ipsos, and says: "A few years ago I was a worker or an employee [FN/RN voter], rather than a rural woman from deindustrialized areas, with few diplomas and, in general, dissatisfied with her life. That base is always there, but it has spread over the last two years." Today we have all the age brackets in the voting RNs, also the young and the elderly; if it is middle-class and the cadres are also more than in the recent past; in those who do not have a RN diploma it is still fast, but now it goes further – let’s say, it has tripled among those who have obtained the licence from the baccalaureate – and there are also good salaries in far-right voters – 3,000 euros to 32% earn. Concerning the development achieved in the rural world, the researcher gives a significant interest, specifying that the socio-economic situation needs to be looked at more than the geographical area: "In the countryside there are poorer people than in the city. The variable is not the rural sphere versus the city; we have to look at the wealth, the amount of isolation, the capacity to be confronted with the diversity of the political offer. The left has concentrated on the big cities and their banlieues, moving away from the rural areas. But in fact, it is not that the field is more linked to the NB. If tomorrow the wealth and public services were better distributed, then the results would be different in the world of the hamlet".

Racists at the base, always

The strategy of sweetness in the image of the NB bears fruit: there is less and less fear for the extreme right. The daughter does not speak as cruelly as her father, even if the immigrant is guilty of all the damage suffered by both. Nonna Mayer, a right-wing researcher, is clear: "The voting RN does not change: 94% say there are too many immigrants in France." In the interview offered to Libération we can read the following: "The RN takes those who feel that globalizations and developments have been neglected, as do all the populist right-wing developments in Europe. According to Ipsos studies, 50% of RN voters say that their economic situation deteriorates, that life does not satisfy them and that they do not receive the respect it deserves. But those statements always go hand in hand with the anti-immigrant attitude. They represent them as if they had more advantages than them."

The left to win everything or lose.

The left-wing FHB has been placed in the first Basque Parliament and has great challenges: in addition to showing that it knows how to govern, it also has to demonstrate that it knows how to move forward in the union. But it must also attract the voters who have turned to the extreme right, hailed by despair and laments, making the left the symbol of hope. Without that, because the far right is always going to go fast, and the unit from the left to the height is going to continue to not exceed 30% of the barrier. To do so, we must look and adapt to the reality of the working class, yes or no. Currently, by disconnection from that base: "The Left has not done any work for a long time in assimilating the popular environment and understanding how this environment is lived. Therefore, they feel that the NB understands and represents better than the left [of this social class]", according to Teinturière, researcher at Ipsos. The same is true of rural areas: the Left must look at the reality of those peoples who are crumbling, genuinely involved in their defence.

FHB MEP François Ruffin has been looking at the workers in his daily struggle. It belongs to a deindustrialized region and sees how the RN loves the working class of the area. "The loss of the working class is very serious for the left: it is not only a loss of votes, it is also a loss of your soul", we can read in an interview with the newspaper Le Monde. As a bertsolari or rapper, says Il nous faut rassembler la France des bourgs et la France des tours. In other words, the importance of the unity that goes from the countryside to the popular neighborhoods is constantly being warned. He says that with the victory of 7 July the citizens have given the left "the last chance": if it does not fulfil the mandate, the left would be sure – always for the sake of the extreme right – of the next defeat. He therefore has the last opportunity and has the time to say: the French presidential elections which he has held in 2027 are soon coming.