“The most Abertzale parliament of all time” vs. “Independence is at the historical lows.” These two statements have been heard in recent times and have increased following the elections held on 21 April in Araba, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa. These two phrases, considered as findings, emerge on the table, and at first glance it seems that we can be facing contradictory political and sociological tendencies. But I believe that both must be qualified and focused on the objective behind each other.

The time is good for this, because in Hego Euskal Herria an electoral cycle has been closed, only the European elections remain. The municipal and forced elections in May, and the Spanish elections in July, showed trends that were reinforced by the votes of the CAV on 21 April, trends that have not been interrupted.

“The most nationalistic parliament of all time.” The electoral results have brought this reality, the nationalists of Gasteiz, of different kinds, are undoubtedly the majority. Neither the PNV nor EH Bildu have concealed this character in their programs and in the campaign, but at the same time, both the campaign and the political debate of recent times, with the Maratonian pre-campaign, have focused not on the national conflict, but on public services and the right to housing. Therefore, it seems that when voting citizenship has not been a central issue, especially in EH Bildu’s ability to attract votes.

In any case, the most stubborn seems to me a second statement: “Independence is at historical lows.” To this assertion that Spanish nationalism and its communication framework insist, I do not think we should give an uncritical acceptance from a Basque perspective. Because when people are asked directly about the subject, what do they answer? There are different things that deserve careful analysis. On the one hand, if we look at long series of surveys such as the CAPV Sociometer, we see that in 1998 it was 25% “for independence” and this year 22% (another 33% “for the situation”). Of course, there have been incidents, but above all it has happened that those who are “against independence” have been activated, especially since 2017, after the Catalan referendum.

I believe that that year is key to analysing social positions on independence. Until then there was a mantra in the political debate: “Without violence all political projects can be defended”. The Catalan Pacific process made it clear, even in Euskal Herria, that a peaceful process would have a violent response from the Spanish State. So things, when you ask about the political future otherwise, the results are different: the Nationmetro, for example, has shown in its measurements that the citizens do not respond abstractly about independence or, on the contrary, ask about a Basque state after an agreed referendum. In the latter case, the majority is in favour of the opposite.

Consequently, independence or social attitude towards a State is not clear, but nuanced. Without falling into the self-indulgence that electoral results can offer, I think it is advisable not to believe in this issue the interested discourse of Spanish nationalism.