Automatically translated from Basque, translation may contain errors. More information here. Elhuyarren itzultzaile automatikoaren logoa

The major threats to the world economy

We have long believed that the capitalist system counts the days. Maybe it's our dream. Because in our youth, this was what the Marxist study said and we were convinced that the road to socialism was already established to reach the new socio-economic-political system. At Anart, Keynes provided opportunities for the survival of capitalism to the savage and exploitative system to make it more human.

Subsequently, real socialism failed, even Keynesianism. Capitalism has also suffered harsh moments such as the oil crisis (1973, 1979), the financial crisis (2008), the technological crisis or the aftermath of the pandemic (2020-2023), but it has always been able to advance through its reinventive capacity. Thus, in order to overcome capitalism, the concept of conventional revolution does not serve us and we must invent another way.

From now on what? Global capitalism has many challenges along the way, many mega-threats. All of them must offer opportunities to organise the world economy in new parameters in which global production must be sustainable if we are to continue living with dignity on this planet.

N tells us about the huge threats the global economy has. Roubini, of Turkish origin but based in New York, in his book Mega Threats. Although not credible, Roubini predicted in 2006 the financial crisis that would begin in 2008. Hence its reputation, although the solutions it proposes are insignificant.

From now on what? Global capitalism has many challenges along the way, many mega-threats.

Roubini foresees ten mega-threats, of which I will mention two. The first is the debts of States and families, whether public or private. Because an economy cannot survive if it is long-indebted, an economy can be indebted when economic activity slows down, but when activity resumes, debts must be paid off, at least, as is not the case today. And to get out of that hole, instead of forgiving debt, it sets out to accelerate economic activity, because GDP should grow by about 5 percent. This figure can be achieved when you're developing, but it's almost impossible when the economy is consolidated, look at Japan.

The second threat of gas is related to climate change. To address this Mega-Threat proposes three ways: 1.- The reduction in carbon dioxide, which would cost between 2 and 6% of the world's GDP, leads us to think that it is a utopia. 2.- Adaptation, in which case a 2.5 degree increase in soil temperature is allowed, having to counteract the effects. For example, surround New York with small islands to protect itself from hurricanes. But to carry out these gigantic tasks, it would take 25, it would not face the rise of sea level, so there would be another utopia. 3.- Geo-technical solar engineering based on the phenomenon that produces the ashes of volcanoes. With the emission of artificial ashes into the atmosphere, particles placed in the air hinder the sun’s rays to the ground. The temperature of the Earth is cooled by a degree or, but carbon dioxide, which is harmful, would not disappear and new diseases would occur, a bad solution.

Conventional economic theory approves mega-threats, but it proposes traditional solutions, without taking into account that our planet is limited if we want to maintain the level of growth so far. However, before it is too late we have to deal with the disaster.

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