Pascal Boniface (Paris, 1956) is a renowned geopolitical expert: Founder of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, IRIS, author of 70 books related to geopolitics and canal owner with 203,000 subscribers on Youtube. Long linked to the French Socialist Party, he is an advisor to several PS ministers, therefore a man of order. At the same time, Europe has defended in its analyses its geostrategic autonomy away from NATO, within a non-Atlantic current that has been strong in France from De Gaulle to Mitterrand.

Since they invaded Ukraine, Russia and Vladimir Putin have been named aggressors and perpetrators of war crimes, denouncing that at the origin of this war the West also has many responsibilities and that the path that has brought us to the drama of 2022 started after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s through the wrong steps of NATO. Finally, he says that there is no more way to negotiate with Putin if we do not want to go to a terrible catastrophe: “If it’s not an enemy, who should you negotiate with? You don’t have to negotiate with your friend!”

Bonifac, the last war in Ukraine, offers a large number of materials, such as editorial analysis, and interviews with known experts. We have selected some passages for the ARGIA reader of the Conséquences géopolitiques de la guerre in Ukraine ("The geopolitical consequences of the Ukrainian war") offered by Bonifac on 28 May at the Saint-Emilion Philosophy Festival, on the winners and losers of the Ukrainian war:

The first victim of the European war in 2022 is Ukraine, prefect. Thousands of deaths and injuries, destruction of many infrastructures… Ukraine is a martyr country. Its president, Volodimir Zelenski, was a comical actor by surprise of many until he reached authority. In the early hours of the invasion, the Russians wanted to run over and take off power, but without doing so, the Chaplin became Churchill, resistant to the invader. When the Americans propose to leave Ukraine, he replies: “I don’t need a taxi, I need military help.” It has become an icon, not global, but Western.

Criticizing Celenski, in the West, makes you an accomplice to Putin, has such power. When you're asking for help, you don't start criticizing the previous one; Zelenski does, like Germany, like Macroni or anybody else. He believes that by his status he can ask anything from the West, but what he is asking is that it be analysed well. Because the source of all the Ukrainian problems is not Putin.

If today Ukraine’s Gross Domestic Product is lower than that of 1991, it is not Putin’s fault, but they have been primarily victims of its authorities, structures based on corruption: There is no more corrupt country in Europe than Ukraine. At present, it cannot be guaranteed that all the civil and military aid sent to them from Europe will be present. The war must show solidarity with the people of Ukraine, not with its authorities.

At the moment, the integration of Ukraine into the European Union would be that of a more American country than Poland and more corrupt than Bulgaria, of 40 million inhabitants, which for many years would hinder the European project. Zelenski does not have to send on the European agenda, Europe is interested in the structural funds, not the European political project. We Europeans must not be ashamed to say that we have interests. In short… why do we care about Ukraine if not for interest? We do not care so much about the people of Yemen, Syria or Sudan, because we do not have them at our borders. There is talk of values to confuse people, security interests are the ones we have in Ukraine. Let us defend Ukraine for what it is and putting our conditions in place. Otherwise, Ukraine can be the trojan mare that EE.UU. It will introduce us, the endless loss of money and corruption and the door for the mafia to enter Europe.

Russia is the other great loser of war, because Putin has sent the political legacy he had accumulated. After the collapse of the country in the 1990s with Boris Yeltsin, Putin rebuilt Russia’s prestige. We Westerners hate it because we've faced it, but in the rest of the world it had a very good image. In the Middle East, for example, besides maintaining Syria, I had relations with Sixteen, Israel, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran -- what now?

Not immediately, but five years later, Europe will be converted without Russian gas. Who is going to buy those billions of cubic meters? China buys much less gas, it will not be able to replace the purchase of Europeans. Russia will not be able to buy Western products, the Russians will suffer, they will have to tighten their belts. Since the outbreak of the war, more than 200,000 have left Russia and are not Siberian peasants, they are the ones dedicated to computer science or new communication technologies, the future of Russia. Putin has established repression comparable to Stalinism, and if they go abroad they have relations or possibilities abroad. Putin said Russia would be the power in new technologies, but its economy remains differentiated in the export of gas, oil and other raw materials. Who could invest in new technologies under these conditions?

Russia is therefore the great loser of this war together with Ukraine. Winner? Certainly, the United States of America and NATO. Those are the real winners, not the whole West, because the other loser is Europe, including France. The project for Europe to have its strategic autonomy is dead, not forever, but for some years. Now, just talking about “European autonomy”, you are recognized as opposed to the United States. NATO, no other player is in the room.

Who today remembers the devastating American in Kabul? When in August 2021 the Americans fled Afghanistan, all of them, including the most partisan Poles, said “Hey, having a ‘Plan B’ wouldn’t be bad, because the Americans are able to leave you out, letting the allies militarily committed to them flee.” Since 2001, the Americans have squandered the 100-year-old Gross Domestic Product in Afghanistan to run for twenty years leaving Taliban in command.

However, if that looked like this on August 15, 2021, today with Ukraine everyone says that “Better than the Americans are there to face Russia.” But what is that nonsense? Russia's annual military spending is $60 billion. The annual military expenditure of the European NATO countries is USD 250 billion. If the Russian army has not been able to take all of Ukraine, who could think that it could attack Germany? However, Europeans will increase our military spending to buy more weapons to EE.UU, we will buy any military material without analyzing what is most useful in the new wars. And with Russia's oblivion, we'll buy gas from the United States, much more expensive and much more polluting.

So far, Pascal Boniface's calculations. And if you've come here, ARGIA reader, know that the latest Net Nearby before the summer break is the last of Pello Zubiria Kamino. It is the turn of younger and stronger colleagues. Thank you from the heart and… a good summer, reader.