For Western capitalist democracies, the red border that cannot be crossed is not democracy, but capitalism and its interests. That is why war is being waged on anyone who questions those interests: whether institutional power has been acquired by voting or by arms, or whether the democratic or dictatorial political system is in force. War is being waged against the Soviet Union of the time or against the Spanish Republic, war is being waged against Cuba, Libya, Hamas or Venezuela. There is no war against those who defend these interests: neither the United States, nor Saudi Arabia, nor Morocco, nor Francoist Spain, nor Videla’s Argentina.

“I do not know why we have to accept a country becoming a communist as a result of the irresponsibility of its citizens. These are issues that are too important for Chilean voters to decide for themselves,” said Henry Kissinger about Chile in Allende. We remember the conclusions well. Throughout Latin America, irresponsible citizens multiplied in a while. The United States broke as many military dictatorships as possible across the continent in order to suppress and purify society as a whole: Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Uruguay… Thinking that a whole generation had internalized the lessons and, therefore, acted responsibly, closed the cycle of dictatorships and opened the most neoliberal democracy, with the right to vote.

The lazkaotarra Xabier Arruti Imaz arrived in Venezuela in 1981 as a refugee. He knew the neoliberal times. Also Chavez’s first victory in the 1999 elections. It has been completely submerged in the Bolivarian revolution. Monsignor Iturriza is currently the general director of the municipality's mayor's office and has held various positions in government structures for years. He says he has two homelands, the one he saw born and the one he received in his lap. Chávez's victory was the first electoral victory in all of Latin America to turn the neoliberal cycle around and open the progressive cycle, without forgetting that the electoral victories of leftist and progressive forces had previously occurred in the new contexts created by the citizenry. “Venezuela brought to Latin America the birth of the left. There was only Cuba, isolated and alone, long lost from Nicaragua,” says Arruti. “Then came Kirchner in Argentina, Lula in Brazil, Evo in Bolivia -- leftist or at least progressive governments.” Some came to question the privileges of the country’s elites, including Venezuela. Others don't. But they all promoted alliances between the peoples of Latin America inwards and above the West outwards, especially with China.

Believing that they had overcome the narrow red lines of the acceptable, the local and Western elites, especially those of the EE.UU, resumed the re-education of society. “The coup d’état against Celaya took place in Honduras, Fernando Lugo was stripped of power in Paraguay, the process against Dilma Roussef and the imprisonment of Lula in Brazil, the proceedings against Cristina Fernández in Argentina and others,” explains Arruti.

The coup d'état of Guaidó and the United States, the last attempt

The opposition and the United States have tried to do everything to overthrow the chavism of institutional power over the last twenty years. For example, the 2002 coup d'état against Chávez, the economic blockade, the information war, the violent riots in 2014 and 2017.La Venezuelan Zuleima
Vergel is a militant and responsible for international relations of the Revolutionary Current Bolivar and Zamora (CRBZ) movement. The CRBZ is one of Venezuela’s revolutionary citizen movements. He says that with Chavez's death the opposition changed its strategy: “Maduro’s first victory is based on not recognizing legitimacy to elections and results.”

The genesis of the failed coup d’état these days is in the Dominican Republic at the beginning of 2017: the negotiating table between the opposition and the government was broken, and the majority of the opposition left the electoral route. "When they were going to sign what was agreed, the United States called on the opposition not to sign. One of the agreements was for Maduro to convene presidential elections,” says Arruti. However, the elections were ahead, and Maduro won them in May 2018, with 67.8% of the votes.

Zuleima Vergel highlighted three main planes in attack: “To deepen the economic war; to isolate the government diplomatically; and to seek institutional ruptures internally, especially in the armed forces.”

The economic war comes from a long way. Lockdown, fines, sanctions. Bilbaíno Mikel Moreno Calzada is a member of the Pakistan Arriaran Foundation, and works in the field of internationalist solidarity. For seven years, he has been living in Caracas and has a close relationship with the popular and humanitarian movement of Chavism. Economic war affects basic material needs such as food or medicines. “The objective of this strategy is ultimately to change the choice of citizenship. Let people say: 'I'm a Chavista, but if the opposition has to send to be able to access the drugs, then send it'. Since Guaidó was self-proclaimed president on 23 January, the coup leaders and their supporters have made a qualitative leap in the investiture. Britain has blocked $1.2 million that Venezuela has stored in the Asian country and denied damage. The US Government has frozen the funds of the Venezuelan state oil company in its territory: 7 billion dollars. This would result in an additional loss of USD 11 billion for next year. The consequences are not common.

At the moment, the coup d ' état is constrained by the objective of internal division. Looking up, appeals to politicians, judges and military to abandon Chavism are continuous – not forgetting threats –. But they have achieved nothing. Major efforts are focused on putting pressure on or buying the army, which is a strategic sector. So far, the Bolivarian Armed Forces have unanimously positioned themselves in favour of Maduro and, above all, of legality. Arruti, both Vergel and Moreno, think they are going to stick to that – although they say that the overall situation cannot be predicted.

If we look down, tiredness and self-criticism remain the social majority Chavismo self-criticism. The attacks have also affected mobilisation and unity, according to the interlocutors. “It has strengthened the unity of social organizations and the Chavista bases,” says Vergel. “In recent years the social and economic situation has deteriorated for many reasons: the fall in the price of oil greatly affects the Venezuelan economy, the economic blockade and fines affect, it is a problem of corruption, also of inefficiency… It is true that Chavism has lost some support on the street. But attacks like those of now, like those of 2014 with the disturbances called guarinbas, add up to Chavism,” Moreno said.

The opposition, for its part, has blurred the old muscle of the street. The opposition intended that the mobilisations called for by Guaidó for Wednesday 30 January were the prelude to the mass mobilisation on Saturday 2 February. Moreno has pointed out that in Caracas between 2,000 and 3,000 people took to the streets despite the expected fall. The weekend “a lot of people have come together, but much less what has come together in this kind of mass mobilizations.” The government also called for a demonstration on the same day, in which there was also a drop in the number, according to Moreno. The coup leaders have called for a new day of mass mobilisation for 12 February in Bilbao.

Meanwhile, the greatest danger internally sees it in violent or armed actions. Those carried out by opponents in rich areas and those promoted economically in poor neighborhoods: “For igniting a violent outbreak in a Chavista neighborhood, $20-30 is paid.”

Leadership and strength of the opposition, outside Venezuela

From the beginning, it was observed that one of the most important pillars of the coup attempt is the foreigner: The United States Government approved Guaidó's self-proclamation within a few minutes; the Lima Group, which brings together the conservative governments of Latin America, did the same; the European Union imposed a maximum period of 8 days to declare Venezuela "free elections", although the European Parliament approved it before the end of this period.

Given the difficulties encountered by attempts at internal rupture and confrontation to achieve their goals, the external variables gain weight in the global strategy and the leadership of the United States is becoming increasingly evident. Guaidó has been able to represent his supposed presidency only in part of the foreign country: he has appointed parallel ambassadors for the countries that have recognized him or new managers of international companies of the State. As it has been published, on January 30 he contacted President Trump by telephone. The most powerful international media are also with the coup d'état. In addition to accepting Guaidó as president and exaggerating his support, an image of Venezuela is spreading that is conflicting, unstable, unstable, uninhabitable. This is intended to strengthen the legitimacy of intervention. Moreno and Vergel, from Caracas and Arruti from Chichiriviche, however, agree that normality has been the dominant tonic in the street since the 23rd day.

Friendly countries

Venezuela faces many strong enemies abroad. But supporters are not few, not frail. Emphasising Russia and China is inevitable, both economic and military powers globally. In addition to being politically friendly countries, they have direct economic ties with Venezuela, including investments worth billions of euros. Agreements have also been signed in the military sphere. Both have stated that they will defend their interests in the face of United States interference and have ensured that no penalty will be imposed. “Venezuela has been restructuring its alliances, in the key of the multipolar world. Russia and China are listening,” says Vergel. Venezuela tightens bonds with the great powers to be more vigilant in the face of such scenarios. Moreno remembers that the paths of geopolitics are blurry and complicated. In Venezuela there are many supra-national interests, both in Latin America and in the world: centers of political influence, geo-strategic alliances, precious raw materials and minerals, etc. Politically, “if Venezuela automatically falls all of Latin America and the Caribbean they would return to a backyard of the United States,” according to Arruti. Vergel said that the backward step would be terrible for the left of the whole world.

Looking forward: all open scenarios

The meeting of the Lima group will be held on 4 February, and the international community has been convened on 7 February to promote the negotiation between Mexico and Uruguay. By the time you read this, some of the current knots will be untied, some of the hypotheses will be discarded and others reinforced.

The options range from open military intervention by the United States to the achievement of a type of consensus, and between these two extremes the alternatives are endless. At the moment, it gives the impression that the coup d ' état will also try to overthrow the government in the name of humanitarian aid. Guaidó announced in his speech on Saturday that he will open three “humanitarian corridors” with international support: from an unspecified Caribbean island, and from the borders of Colombia and Brazil, two countries with far-right governments that have recognized Guaidó as president. One day later, the United States announced that it would send "aid" to Guaidó in response to the request of its "government".

It is impossible to predict what will come: by instability; by the numerous and intertwined factors, strengths and interests at stake; as Moreno and Vergel stress, “unpredictability” is the hallmark of Venezuela’s identity.
Arruti has no doubt that, even if the worst comes, Chavism will fight: "It will make it very hard for them to welcome Venezuela, both by internal forces and by the people we have at the international level. It's not going to be easy for you, fuck it!" Vergel spoke firmly: “We are also preparing civil society to defend the territory. We will not deliver our achievements.”