As usual, major weather events occur every September.
The depletion of the ozone layer in Antarctica in September of the last 30 years has become a source of concern. Although there has been a weakening this year, it has fortunately been less than usual.
We must not forget what is happening in the Arctic in September. Around mid-September the level of Arctic freezing is at the lowest level of the year and, year after year, that level has been decreasing so much that more and more people are saying that Arctic ice melts within twenty years. This year has been the eighth worst year of the century when it comes to the level of ice, so we can say that we are dealing with a very positive development and breaking the trend of recent years.
In the two cases we mentioned, President Donald Trump would have the excuse to ratify what was said in the campaign: That there are no serious ecological problems in the world. But there have also been other events that have not been favorable to Trump, as the strongest hurricanes in history have been recorded in the Caribbean, and recently the fires in California have caused more deaths and more damage than hurricanes.
Data analysis by scientific methods will never reflect 100% certainty, so if scientists can calmly work on fact-finding to get the most realistic results, society should try to avoid the worst possible hypothesis.
We cannot reach general conclusions with the events of this year, but with the data of the last twenty or thirty years. Therefore, as we see that the ozone hole is not going to get worse, the Arctic should be considered an exception this year, unless the history of the data indicates something else.
More than one will ask if we need long-distance series to consider trends as definitive. If we had collected data from the last hundred or two hundred years, perhaps the ozone values and the latest data from the Arctic would be a mere anecdote, so Trump would have more legitimacy. Significant data succession must be based on the peculiarities of each event, as well as thousands of years of data are needed to suspect the variability of astronomical events, as one day will be sufficient to detect the contamination of a river.
Data analysis by scientific methods never reflect 100% certainty, so if scientists can calmly work on the analysis of the facts to get the most realistic results possible, society must try to avoid the worst hypothesis from the very beginning, although often it does not comply with it; I think that when the human sense is a wisdom that has developed throughout history, we must attend to what the heart commands, above all, to what the head takes a long time.
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