On 1 October, Catalonia will hold a referendum on self-determination. Residents will answer the following question using the March 30 census: “Do you want Catalonia to be a state in the form of a republic?” The joy, fears, analyses and forecasts that will be made the next day will be plentiful. The successful supporters will set in motion a constituent process and in a few months they will hold constituent elections. The rivals, unable to believe the result, will look to Madrid waiting for answers, overwhelmed by the new situation.

But will he win the yes? Day by day, I see the answer more and more clearly. I see a photograph of Terrassa as I write this. On the spot, the Civil Guard is registering a local press in search of the papers that are going to be used to vote, while several people deposit flowers in the cars of the civil guards. This picture is a reflection of the reality of these days. The State, in an attempt to silence the expression of the word. This effort will lead them to vote for many uncertain voters. There's no more than looking at the data. The voters of JxYes, the CUP and Catalunya Yes Es Pot make 57% of the census and among them the “yes” wins clearly. There is much talk in Madrid about the illegality of the referendum. It is true, because it cannot be argued that the rules resulting from a suspended law are legal. But who has to focus the debate on legality? How many times have we used, individually or collectively, the legalities that have been applied to the oppressed to overcome them? A thousand times. So, legal no, but legitimate.

As from 1 October, the Parlament and the Generalitat will begin a constituent process and, on the other hand, it is possible that at international level some pressure will be put on the Spanish Government. With a high turnout and a clear benefit of the yes, it cannot be ruled out that in European public opinion there are votes in favour of the referendum or, at least, that the Spanish Government presses in favour of the negotiated resolution. On the other hand, the negotiating discourse also extends to the Spanish opposition, which could put Mariano Rajoy in a situation of political solitude. At that time, on the one hand, the debate on constitutional reform in Spain will resume and, on the other, the Catalan constituent process will slow down by breaking the political unity of Catalonia. At that time, the key is whether the advocates of constitutional reform are going to continue with the constituent process, or whether they are going to give in to the votes they have voted on from Madrid.

We cannot deny the envy of the situation here, because Catalonia is going to be an independent republic. Maybe not now. But the process carried out so far has left deep seeds: there has been a collective change of consciousness that has no turning back in society. Zorionak Catalunya. You're about to do that.