Veteran journalist Tomás Alcoverro (La Vanguadia) says: “If you’ve understood anything from the Middle East, it’s that you’ve been misexplained.” The dream of these lines is not to give a full explanation of the tension that could lead the Arabian Gulf to war this summer. On the contrary, it seems interesting to know what the phenomenon looks like in Lebanon through the portal. L’Bidasoa-Le Jour is one of the main newspapers in Beirut, which shows the vision of the Christian bourgeoisie, defends the Western parliamentary model, critical of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, suspicious of Israel that has destroyed the country, also critical of the reactionary Islam that Saudi Arabia has opened...

Since 5 June, Saudi Arabia (31.5 million inhabitants), Barherin (1.37), the United Arab Emirates (9.16) and Egypt (91.5) have suspended all their relations with Qatar (2.4 million), flights, purchases, tourism, visits, political and military relations… and the presence of Al Jazeera television.

Serious moments for this small and very rich Gulf power. See figures. Of the 2.4 million inhabitants – only a quarter of women – 90 per cent of foreign working people have no nationality more than 300,000. A territory like Navarra. Prohibition of political parties. The third largest gas reserve in the world, after Russia and Iran.

Since Qatar was freed from Saudi Arabia in 1995, the authorities of the two have been in tension between the two countries. Saudi Arabia and its satellites, removed by Qatar’s ambassador, experienced the previous crisis in 2014.En this time, Saudi Arabia has tended the rope more forcefully, imposing a total blockade on Qatar. Mediation efforts are more complicated and the two parties are more difficult to reverse: If Qatar boils down, it would lose its character; Saudi Arabia, after the fall of Yemen, cannot allow any other family member to obey it; the leadership of Muslim countries is at stake.

Anthony Samrani writes: “Riad feels threatened. On the one hand, Iran is being strengthened in the Middle East. On the other hand, there has been a proliferation of insolent movements that call into question the order that has been given so far, such as the Islamists. Riyadh is currently the forerunner of the anti-Iranian, anti-Islamist and anti-democratic counter-revolution. The Saudi family wants to be the last nail in the coffin of the ‘Arab Spring’.”

One of the keys to all of this is that Iran crashes. Despite the agreement with the United States on atomic energy, the Iranians continue to consolidate their hegemony in the region, controlling the governments of Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, as seen from Beirut as the strength of the Shian power. As for Saudi Arabia, for Israel Iran is the main enemy, the threat of stability throughout the Middle East. Donald Trump has set aside Obama's tibishments and has agreed with that vision of the United States. In this situation, will Catar resist?

In the same newspaper, Emile Sueur has signed an editorial that suggests the most likely loser of the crisis: “The funambulist Qatar begins to wobble.”

Probability of a thunder turning into a storm

When Emir Hamad al-Thani took ownership of the crown of Qatar – in Sueur’s analysis – in 1995, it was then that the effects of the Desert Storm, which Iraq had sown Kuwait, were felt. Iran’s and Saudi Arabia’s ambition understood that to keep the throne alive, keep the Emirate alive, it had to give it a place on the map of the world.

To do so, Catar has neither military force, nor sufficient population, nor geographical location. But it's very rich. It will invest gas dollars in all the components of diplomacy (culture, sport, media, politics, economy) to escape the shadow of the great Riad.

One of the main instruments of the general offensive has been Al Jazeera: the revolution in the panorama of regional media, which allows to influence the entire Middle East, with astonishing hearings, angering other leaders.

To engage in economic diplomacy, Catar will create a large fund with the benefits of gas to invest in companies and public debts of countries impoverished by the crisis such as Germany, the United States, France or the United Kingdom. It also wants to shine in the sport Qatar, not to mention the investments in Barcelona FC, the world football championship for 2022… Education and culture, agreements with the best universities in the United States and Europe.

On a real diplomatic front, it will play the role of equilibrist in overcoming the barbarism it has in geopolitics. First, by breaking all the contacts with Israel, then try to mediate with Hamas, who commands in Gaza… at the same time as we rescue Dohan, Hamas’ supreme leader. In similar terms with the United States, provide the central military headquarters in the Middle East at al-Udeid base to carry out attacks on Syria and Iraq, while at the same time allowing an official Taliban office in Doha. On the other hand, much has been written with the help of Qatar to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, but this has not been very different from its older brother, the Saudi one. Geopolitics allows contradictory games of all kinds.

But it also has to manage relations with Iran, and this is far from the interests of the leaders of Riyadh. Iran and Qatar share the gigantic gas reservoirs under the waters of the Persian Gulf, the largest in the world. Therefore, he could not participate in the Arab campaign to isolate Iraq.

Qatar’s diplomacy balanced its path until in 2013 a military coup in Egypt defeated Mohammad Morsi, supported by the Qataris. The diplomatic crisis between the Gulf countries is also one of the crises we are experiencing at this time.

And when things seemed to have calmed down, this same year came Donald Trump's visit to Riyadh, a violent speech against Iran, and the warming of relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States.

“Riyadh and its allies – the editorial concludes – have not wasted time trying to drag Qatar back, which has broken the wound and behaved too blatantly. Today, in the face of the great silence of the Western authorities and the decision of Saudi Arabia to redistribute regional letters to their liking, the Qatar Funamble must have great work to survive the wire. From there, this diplomatic thunder may announce the beginning of a new storm in the Middle East.”