From the first return to the French presidencies came the ideas and partially built by the media and the polls. Repeating again and again the victory of Marine Le Pen, most had in their imagination the passage of the second round of the National Front (FN). The strategic questions of many were: Who is better on the second round? Or what's the worst? If you listen to the media and the polls, Emmanuel Macron, who is in front of him, will be the new president of France on the night of 7 May. According to the first polls, the liberal candidate who holds himself either left or right would hold 60% of the votes. However, it is worthwhile not to have any bad surprise, to look at the reality behind the figures.

Standardised FN

The manual work of the media and the polls has made it possible to normalize the triumph of the Fn. On 23 April 2017 there has been neither the fear nor the complaint of 21 April 2002. The neighbors have devoured the execution of the result over and over again, ignoring the bad taste it has. Because they start getting used to it. Let us remember that it was in 2002 that Jean-Marie Le Pen achieved for the first time the move to the second round, with Jacques Chirac from right to head. To be honest, surprise, but what could have been predicted had it been about the importance that the media has given to the issue of insecurity. The day after the first round of this period there has been no mobilisation encouraged by the threat of the extreme right, there have not been as many mobilizations as to make the FN more difficult.

message of misery. The clearest example is that the right-wing right-wing right-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has won 19.6% of the votes, has not called into question the extreme right. The day after the first lap of 2002, whether left or right, the first pages of the media were significant: “Non” Libération, “La bombe Le Pen”, France Soir, “Les leçons d’un désastre”, Le Nouvel Observateur... None of that in this period, except L’Humanité, most have prioritized the informative message, putting on the first page Macron’s face they love. There is no further warning of FN xenophobia. In the second round, Jacques Chirac was victorious, who stayed away from Jean-Marie Le Pen with 17.5% of the votes. That doesn't stop you from thinking that the same thing is going to happen.

Failure or slap?

Although there have been no messages on the street against xenophobia, it can be predicted that it will be heard through the vote. But the important question is whether Le Pen is going to lead a defeat or a defeat to train. For the far right candidate, defeat and slap are not the same. Because 20 percent is not 40 percent. Later, the road to real victory would be more open with defeat, but it would remain to the same extent with the slap, that is, quickly but without being able to pass a bite. Given the feeling “all are equal” or the rejection of the financial world represented by Macron, will Le Pen be blocked by all voters who do not want the extreme right on 7 May? Above all, after fifteen days of hearing the message of Macron’s clear victory. Or, “Anyway Le Pen won’t pass, mine won’t change anything,” they will prioritize the idea. The range of abstentionism will influence.

In Ipar Euskal Herria always above

However, the results are there. There are also voters of more unknown candidates, such as François Fillon (20.01%), who have participated with a far-right speech. Although Fillon, who has succeeded in bringing together one of the five voters, has called on Macron to vote, not all who support him (the Sens Commun movement against Gay marriage and Lesbian showed support for Fillon, who has not adhered to Le Pen’s call for the second round). Le Pen has obtained 7.7 million votes, which means an increase of 1.2 million votes in five years os.El the fact that in
Ipar Euskal Herria there has been fourth force does not mean that it is not strengthening. He obtained 12.10% of the votes of Lapurdi, Baja Navarra and Zuberoa, a total of 21,738 votes. 2.271 votes more than five years ago. In 2012 he made a real contribution, doubling his strength. Whether it's the mountain village or the coastal city, it's still convincing the new voters. For example, in Banka from 24 to 28, in Ezpeize-Ündürein from 37 to 48, in Maule from 150 to 160, in San Juan de Luz from 892 to 961, in Baiona from 2,485 to 3,068. There are no villages where there have been no supporters of the Fn. There are also people who have lost their votes (Ziburu, Baigorri, Atharratze…), but in general the FN rises in Ipar Euskal Herria.

Working class

Many do not see their representative Macron, a candidate representing the financial world, a friend of business/woman and the mainstream media. Le Pen regards it as “a candidate for the system” and it cannot be denied that it is. If you compare the votes map of the two candidates by socio-professional categories, they can be placed almost on top of each other: class

Macron is imposed on the position of the middle and high, while Le Pen is placed in the position of the workers. Le Pen addresses the “forgotten Republicans”, getting the attention of those who feel that feeling and making them feel within that qualification more and more people. Macron at least convinces the working class. Regarding Ipar Euskal Herria, this phenomenon is not confirmed: Conservative candidate Mélenchon has imposed himself on Le Pen, with 19.19% of the votes. For example, in the city of Maule, in the fast-class class, the staff have held the first position, with 26.46%, and in Bokale with 29.48%.

First colonies in the old

They have the same feeling of goats in the former French colonies designated as Department and Territory beyond DOM-TOM. With 21.9% of the votes, the FN is the first time that more votes have been obtained. Abstention was a reflection of this feeling, 53% did not go to the ballot box and this allowed Le Pen to win. In five years, the Basque Government has more than doubled the results so far. Mayott, which has to respond to immigrants from the neighbouring islands, has increased in five years from 2.8% to 27.3%.

The door-to-door message arouses fascination in both France and the DOM-TOM. Le Pen sends out messages against the ‘elite system’, ‘Islamist terrorism’ and ‘savage globalisation’. Because he knows that on those issues Macron has the weakness of making an effective counterattack heard.