Pablo Iglesias recalled in the campaign that José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was the best president of the government of the time of Spanish democracy. Or he also said, among other things, that a “new social democracy” is needed. United We have made many gestures to fish in the cove of the traditional PSOE vote and, at least in response to the surveys, it cannot be said that it has gone wrong.

When at the beginning of April it was found that no new government would emerge from the December elections, each party began to define its strategy for other general elections. In the style of a classic second round, it was logical to think that the only reference on the left and right would be reinforced. On the right, it certainly was pp; and on the left, we can, among other things, because a significant part of the left electorate touches PSOE more than on the left. In any case, when Podemos and the United Left were incorporated, there was no doubt left, and the United Can remained as a reference.

According to all the surveys of the last two or three weeks, one in four voters with a decisive vote will vote to the United States Podemos. With regard to pp there are more doubts, but in addition to being the most voted party, he recovers the votes that accompanied him in December to Citizens. And in almost all the surveys, the coalition of Pablo Iglesias and Alberto Garzón is ahead of a PSOE that is going to reverse. In the surveys, however, there is another key element that will be decisive: one third of the people who have the right to vote have not yet decided to vote.

Which government will be set up?

In search of the hegemony of the left, the struggle between the United Can and the PSOE will be very hard until the last minute of the conflict. This polarization of the left and the right, which has already been mentioned, has also made it possible to imagine that the United Can and the pp were going to pass the same, but not. The strategy of pp is not to fight hard with United We Can, because that strengthens the coalition to the detriment of the PSOE, he said.

But isn't it in the ppp's interest that his rival for years stays as weak as possible? Former pp leader José María Aznar also seems not, as he said in a final master’s degree in Madrid, as Enric Juliana of La Vanguardia pointed out: “Aznar advised to create the conditions for a great constitutional pact between PP, PSOE and Citizens, recommending two recipes”. One, to help create the conditions that favor connection, rapprochement, agreement, accompaniment and insertion; two, to make the personal sacrifices that are necessary to support this agreement. I mean, I was asking for Mariano Rajoy's head.

After all, there are now also two or three main options for forming a Spanish Government. For the pp, the most comfortable would be that of Citizens. Regardless of style and hypocrisy, they agree on basic content such as the economic model, cooperation with Brussels or state settings. Pp, however, does not rule out a minimal government. What would I want? Abstention from the PSOE and Citizens and subsequent consensus with Parliament.

If, once again, the votes bring the narrow port of December, it is not disposable. In the PSOE itself there is a similar idea: last week, the economic affairs coordinator of the Socialist Party, Jordi Sevilla, pointed out that in order for there to be no further blockade, there should be a majority in the Congress of Deputies. From that door, pp would comfortably move to form government.

The words of Seville sound good in the ears of the barons of the PSOE and Felipe González, but not in those of Sánchez. The Party is divided into two before a situation: If it happened before the United States We can and there would be possibilities, Sánchez and many more would be willing to form government with them; no, the old guard of the PSOE, the Moncloa.

And in the worst of the attacks, there's the big coalition government option, the one you like most about banks, Brussels and business associations: Pp, PSOE and Citizens. A government that had churches like lehendakari is totally ruled out, although neither the PSOE nor the United States could have enough strength to do so.

Debt… what debt?

Whatever government comes out, the dove faces the falcon at Brussels claws. The Spanish Government has closed this year with a deficit of 5.1%, one more point than expected, which means an economic disbursement of EUR 10 billion. Brussels has also decided to delay the Spanish Government's fine of EUR 2 billion to get the issue out of the elections, for failure to meet the deficit target. In the dictionary of crisis the meaning of these numbers is clear: brutal cutbacks. Nor is it bad to predict where they are going to be done.

A government of any colour, fundamentally linked to debt, will also have a more demanding general situation. For the first time in a whole century, the public debt of the Spanish State exceeded last May the size of its GDP, i.e. more than a trillion euros. In 2007, the Spanish public debt stood at 37%, 384 billion euros, 782 billion euros when pp arrived at the government in 2012 and 1.09 billion in 2016. This year, EUR 35 billion will be taken from the coffers of state public administrations to pay interest on the debt.

But who heard of debt, for example, in the debate on the four main candidates? Neither there nor in the campaign in general has the subject been touched upon. The French economist Eric Toussaint complains that the United States We can't get the money either: “The questioning of debt as a marginal issue is also being addressed in the leftist parties, and I am concerned about that. It seems that the parties are avoiding positioning themselves on the subject.” The economist is clear that any government has a party to make progressive policies, without paying off part of the portfolio it holds in its portfolio. It goes even further: “A government of change in Spain should disobey and deal with the European Commission and the European Central Bank (…) With an in-depth agenda for change, Greece, Portugal and Spain should leave the euro.”

Catalonia and the process of independence

Another of the hot potatoes of any government will be held in Catalonia following the general election. The independence process has lost strength and the main drivers of independence agree on that too. The last blow to the process has been the lack of agreement between Junts Pel Yes and the Cup on the Generalitat budgets. The new Spanish Government would have to face up to a constitutional process promoted by the Generalitat in 2017, which, in theory, should be dissolved that year and call for new constituent elections, but it is not clear what is going to happen. Firstly, following the breakdown of the budget issue, Carles Puigdemont will have to overcome the confidence motion announced by the President of the Generalitat for September. Then we will have to see what can happen with the unilateral referendum on independence: The Cup wants that, ERC doesn't see it bad, Puigdemont says it needs to be studied and doesn't even want to hear the most vulnerable CDC sector.

The Generalitat will travel to Madrid in search of the agreed referendum, but will not hear any new sound in the old Moncloa; the echoes of the United States We can in favour of the agreed referendum will be lost in the streets of Madrid. If the independentists stick to their way, it is nothing more than a matter of time of clash with Madrid. At least if the success of the En Comú Podem elections does not deactivate everything.

United We Can Euskadi

Last December, Podemos imposed votes on the PNV in the CAV (316.441/301.585) and was the second force in Navarra, behind UPN (101.901/80.961). On this occasion, all the surveys give the first place to the United Can (EAD) in the CAV, both in votes and in seats. As for trends, EH Bildu would keep its two seats, pp would also keep its only seat and the PSOE could lose one in three, that of Álava. The citizens vote differently in the autonomous and general elections, but it cannot be forgotten that elections to the Basque Parliament will be held next autumn and that there will now, at least, be some trends.

Further developments are expected in Navarre: According to Metroscopia, for the first time EAD can win the elections, with 35.9% of the votes, ahead of UPN-PP (28.8%). UPN, for its part, has not lost any party since 1989. The current SNP seat would be in question, with one seat below. GEROA Bai and EH Bildu, as in December, would not be represented. Despite the fact that they are different elections, the weakness of the two forces supporting the current foreign government will become apparent again. EH Bildu and Geroa Bai proposed that the four parties to the change be together, but Podemos and I-E refused. EH Bildu and Geroa Bai dismissed going together. Now everyone has to keep on with their own.