Automatically translated from Basque, translation may contain errors. More information here. Elhuyarren itzultzaile automatikoaren logoa

PP-Citizens, a wall for another four years

The Spanish elections do not come as planned last May, either for the Spaniards or for the Basques. When the municipalities were set up in June, the expulsion of the PP was seen as a real option. The experience of broad leftist fronts reduced the opportunity for change. If it was possible in Madrid and Barcelona, why not in Spain?

The right always learns fast and also has many media. Who should be fed if PP is in decline? A good choice is Albert Rivera and Ciutadans, who face the independence Catalans with the sword of El Cid Campeador. Think and do, there is Podemos, right. Big economic powers don't care so much if it's Rajoy or Rivera, or so much if it's Sánchez. But Churches make them nervous. But not enough. If there are no great surprises, the results of Podemos and the PSOE will not give to overcome pp and citizens in Congress.

Looking from Euskal Herria, with the thirst for change, we have made a little hope: to open a door once and for all to peace, to the LOMCE, to avoid further labor reforms, to give up new adventures of war, to open a door of negotiation in Catalonia…

No, everything indicates that many of these issues will coincide with the pact wall of the PP and Citizens. The hope of overcoming them is low, but if an absolute majority is not achieved, the votes of the periphery may become decisive.

Regarding the results of Euskal Herria, pp and PSOE always have better harvests in Spanish generals than in Euskal Herria, but the surveys do not provide good results. Not even trends. The worst result in 2011 was that of the last 20 years, with a decrease of 4.1%. The PSOE achieved 5 seats in Hego Euskal Herria, 4 in the CAV and 1 in the Foral Community of Navarra. Pp in CAV 3 and UPN-PP 2 in Navarra. It is most likely to be maintained in Navarre, but in the CAV it is not clear: The CIS survey gives 2 seats to pp and 1 or 2 to PSE-EE. They both come in decline, but it's not easy to imagine that the coup can be so big. On the contrary, most of the surveys coincide with Citizens, who in Spain are in a foam phase, who will not get a seat.

Euskal Herria is different, Citizens no, but We can. The CIS survey provides for five seats, four in the CAV and one in the Foral Community of Navarra. If results such as the resignation of Roberto Uriarte or Roberto Uriarte were achieved, they would be very good. In Navarre, the CIS does not see a Member for Geroa Bai (Koldo Martínez), who was unanimously elected. It is very possible, however, that that seat competes with EH Bildu and Podemos.

The PNV and Bildu have also been involved in results similar to those of 2011, according to several surveys. The PNV expects this (5 seats), while EH Bildu would be delighted to achieve 6 seats (7 in 2011). It seems a little too much, especially seeing that We can be there.

Adding acronyms or separate more? This is a question which is usually asked in politics and which Navarre will have to answer on this occasion, since Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and I-E have formed a joint list for the Senate. The Basque Government faces UPN and pp, but if compared to the data of the May elections, the Executive forces should win with slack (change 160,352 votes/UPN-PP 105,994). The experiment would have been rounded up if they had gone to Congress together, but Geroa Bai and Podemos already announced from the beginning that they were going to go solo. Of the great forces, EH Bildu was the only one who opened the doors to this possibility.

That's how it was in the CAV. The proposal to set up a joint left-wing candidature by several personalities did not go ahead, but, once again, EH Bildu showed his greatest interest in the proposal. No wonder, on the one hand, it is not easy to maintain the results obtained in 2011 and 2012; on the other hand, it has the vision of the future in the alliance or accumulation of leftist forces, both for the institutional alternative and for social and national development. The internal challenges, however, are not weak, as they move from the current structure of the party coalition to a farther away one. Today, from socialdemocracy to strict anti-capitalism, from the broad middle class sectors that live comfortably to the speakers well marked by the crisis. In the new era that has just begun, after ETA, it will not be easy to maintain all this in a coherent and unitary manner.


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