Shadow of the carnation
The Iberian Peninsula is currently experiencing a small earthquake in recent weeks and many eyes have been set on the horizon in Europe. Since 27 September the Catalan process has been under way and the elections in Portugal have given the alliance of left-wing forces so that the right does not continue to govern. On 20 December there will also be general elections in Spain and although the phenomenon of Podemos is not yet seen as strong as it has for a year, no one yet knows what can happen.
In the Basque Country, the green vinho, the cheap restaurants and the country of Grandola Vila Morena is the one in the west of the Atlantic, or the one that has sent the immigrants there in several decades. From there, little attention to Portugal, even if we are driving in 4-5 hours. The distance is different from physics.
The European country that was most forced to tighten the austerity belt after Greece was the one that revolutionized the carnations in 1974. This is one of the biggest changes he has experienced in recent decades with regard to Spain: there they woke up from the dictatorship with a revolution, while Spain began a transition that was going to be covered by the disaster of the dictatorship. The Social Democracy of Mario Soares managed to guide the leadership of the leftist revolutionaries, turning socialism into a social democracy and a right without social-democratic costumes.
The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Conservatives (CDS), who came together, won the parliamentary elections on 4 October, but not by an absolute majority. Here's the plan. 107 votes to the right and 122 to the left (PS, Left Block and PCP). The Socialist Party has emerged victorious from among these great candidates (1.74 million votes, 32.4% of the total), while the most growing party is the Left Block closest to Podemos (551,000 votes and 10.2%), with 446,000 votes from the Communists, 8.3% of the votes.
The fact is that almost no one expected the PSE to join the Bloc and the PCP, but it has already happened that last week the three Basque forces elected Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, leader of the left band of the PS, as president of Parliament. The three left-wing forces have also expressed their willingness to form government, but the President of the Republic, Cavaco Silva (PSD), has appointed socialist Passos Coelo as President of the Government against the parliamentary majority. In other words, the right is not going to make any headway in Parliament and it is going to be a functioning government until next January, when the presidential elections are held. If a president of the PS or of the left-wing consensus comes out, a president of the PS will be elected and Portugal will fight austerity, pulling the Bloc and the communists to the left and trying to maintain the classical social democracy PS. If right-wing lehendakari prevails, there is a complicated situation of cohabitation, which will hardly be able to reappoint right-wing President. But that part of the movie can't be predicted now.
ANY SUBJECT? Some may be: one, the PCP has seen that it is better to try to confront the Troika among the forces of the left than to continue to impose on the right the Troika à la carte. Two, the PS has also preferred to join the Portuguese Syriza, which in the medium term is PASOK. Three, seeing what has happened in Greece, the left-wing alliance will hardly be able to do the same as Syriza, dealing so directly with Brussels. And four: Is there any free time to combat the austerity with which you want to fight?
Nobody knows, but after what happened in Greece, it seems that the EU’s left-wing forces, even if they reach governments, avoid direct confrontation with Brussels. Once they have won the great battles of their countries, one of the paths that remains is to change the policies of the European Union through alliances. The alternative to making the road on its own is to prepare the country for the conditions of exit from the euro zone, an alternative that causes fear in any country, even among the left-wing population.
So how can we resist adverse situations without dreaming? “The people are the ones who command the most / In every corner, a friend / In every face, equality...”.
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