On my last trip to Barcelona, I felt that confidence in the independence project has weakened among my friends. The Centre d’Estudis d’Opinion de la Generalitat has put the number into the atmosphere perceived in the streets of Catalonia. According to the March barometer, 39.1% of respondents think that Catalonia should be an independent state, 26.1% the federalists, 24.0% the autonomists and 3.4% the centralists. If the question is dichotomous, that is, if there are possibilities to answer “yes” or “no” to independence, he does not win with 48% to 44% of the self.

Catalonia wanted a referendum agreed with Spain. Thus, if the agreed majority is achieved in order to achieve independence, the international recognition of the new State becomes automatic. However, consultations are often agreed as a way of managing the end of a violent conflict. One exception is the cases of Scotland or Montenegro, because the proposals for secession were cheap for the States of origin; otherwise, the scenario leads us inexorably to the conflict to achieve an agreed right of secession, and when it is achieved, minimal participations and large majorities are imposed to make independence effective. Nevis, Montenegro or South Sudan are examples of this practice in recent years.

If we are talking about unilateral independence, in the last three decades everyone has managed to exceed the threshold of two-thirds of the votes in favour in the elections or in the referendum, although this has not ensured international recognition. The creation of a normal independent state requires international recognition. For the latter, the democratic majority has become a necessary condition, but not sufficient for geopolitical reasons. However, more support from the citizens, more possibilities of international knowledge over and above geopolitical games.

Catalonia is far from achieving a large majority in favour of independence. The only way to achieve this is to increase tension, which can only take place at the moment through “plebiscite” elections. If there is a pro-independence majority, albeit a short one, a big problem would arise for Spain and the European Union. At that point, the impetus for a broad secessionist majority in the event that Spain did not negotiate the consultation would be strong. But that clear scheme has been too late. Following the referendum on 9 November, the independence elite of Catalonia was unable to reach an agreement for the elections in early 2015. The declaration of independence announced by the Catalan National Assembly for 23 April 2015 has not taken place and the blockade of partisanship has generated frustration.

Meanwhile, Podemos was hopeful in Catalonia: it woke up the non-independence dormant vote and achieved respect among some secessionists with the ideas of democratic, social and plurinational regeneration in Spain. In this dialectic between regeneration and rupture, the surveys have now brought good news for the independentists of Catalonia. The outbreaks of power in Madrid have been a great success against Podemos and for Citizens. If there is going to be a change in regeneration in Spain, even if it is cosmetic, it seems that it will come from the hand of Citizens. If this happens, independence will be reinforced very significantly by the fear generated by a Spanish nationalist party as Citizens. Leaving aside the ideas of regeneration that have replaced Podemos, the only solution will be rupture, independence.