The economic crisis, sovereignty, peacemaking and elections will be the pillars of the new political course that will begin next year. The Spanish authorities are selling the miracle of weak economic growth – a forecast of 1.5% of GDP by 2014 – that would be a consequence of the economic reforms of the PP and that would continue in 2015, with growth of 2%. And more than an economic odor, this data strikes elections, at least as far as the economic data of Spain and Europe are concerned.

No one knows what the economy will do, but the ravages that have taken place in the last seven years of crisis are irreversible in the short term: the huge cuts that have been made will not be recovered far, the decline in the welfare state has been great, the fall in wages and unemployment remains the greatest in history in Spain. In the case of unemployment, the statements made last week by the Spanish professor Juan Ramón Plaza echoed: there will be growth, unemployment will be reduced, but of the 5 million unemployed in Spain, 2 million will no longer have jobs.

The wind coming from the European Union is also causing a shudder: Germany, France and Italy’s growth forecasts for 2014 are negative, so it is logical to think that this will also have a major impact on the Spanish economy, among other things when most of their exports go to Europe. The crisis started in 2007 in the EU has been challenged by well-known austerity and there does not seem to be any major changes in this regard. On the contrary, the capacity of this vortex is being strengthened and has already swallowed the French Government itself, which did not want to see them. According to the Catalan economist Vicenç Navarro, in his official blog (The Recovery? We are entering the third recession. 27 August), if not left, the EU enters the third recession at the beginning of the crisis

As for self-sufficiency, this time it is up to us to look at others. In Scotland – 18 September – and in Catalonia – 9 November – referendums on independence will be held and their influence will also be important in our country. Regardless of whether independence is achieved, Scotland is a victory for any country seeking a state: What more luxury than an agreement referendum?

The war in Ukraine is the opposite end. Despite very different situations and contexts, the essence of the problem is almost the same: Why don't Kiev and Russian amateurs negotiate a solution like Scotland's? There are many reasons, but at least two are first-line: One, because the Kiev Government after the coup does not want to hear any of the possible separations; two, knowing that behind are the Russian forces, because the rebels of eastern Ukraine have wanted to use the Crimean Txanpa to join Mother Russia. Catalonia can be between Scotland and Ukraine, with no smell of war, but on the doorstep of a major conflict with Spain. Spain has the strength of the Constitution, among others the armed forces; Catalonia the strength of most of its citizens, that alone, but the most important for the core of democracy. Will there be sufficient democratic standards in Spain?

If we look at Euskal Herria, we can't be optimistic. Instead of deepening the solution for all after the cessation of ETA’s weapons, we cannot have much hope with the government of the PP that was framed in the policies of revenge and conflict. It takes many years for the pain of decades to be channeled into coexistence, but not to start laying the foundations for peace. In the situation of the peace process in Euskal Herria, many measures could be taken on key issues such as arms, prisoners or victims.

Every year a few steps are taken and this year they will also be, but everything would be different if Madrid collaborated in this process. For the time being, however, the policy of revenge comes better to the PP than the solution, especially in view of the municipal elections of May 2015: the hard traditional policies in Spain give it votes; the resolution measures would strengthen the climate of peace in Basque society, but in Spain perhaps with less votes.