The refusal of the Catalans issued last week by the Congress of Deputies gives the possibility to refer to the New Statute promoted by lehendakari Juan José Ibarretxe and the PNV in the last decade. In 2005, the Spanish representatives showed a much tougher attitude towards lehendakari Ibarretxe than they did with the Catalans. On this occasion, the Catalan House had called for a referendum, so it was discussed for seven hours. The discussion was then closed. It is hardly possible to make a greater contempt, hardly more undemocratic, than to deny the same controversy of the institution to the institution n.El The Basque Government continued with the organization of the consultation, but when the Constitutional Court prohibited it, nothing happened in the CAV, neither in the Government, nor in the Basque Parliament, nor
in Basque society. It was a clear sign of the weakness of the New Statute until the consultation phase. Perhaps the context could provide more information. The NIP was divided both around the New Statute and, above all, to agree on how far it should go for its entry into force. The situation of the Abertzale left was more complicated: outside the law and after the 2006 peace process, which was immersed in a complicated internal debate. Given the importance it now attaches to the Ibarretxe Plan, it is not easy to understand that Batasuna left at that time an opposing position, although three of his votes did allow for its approval in the Basque Parliament. The opposition of pp and PSE-EE was broad, in number and in action, and in addition, ETA continued its armed work. In this context, it is perfectly understandable that the New Statute initiative has not moved forward. That level of support was not possible.

What choice does the Catalan sovereign movement now have? If the State refuses to make the referendum, it must make its own way to ensure that the promised referendum is legally protected. The Consultation Act, which is already well advanced, will begin to be drafted after Easter in the Catalan Parliament and is scheduled to be ready by September. That is when the Government of Artur Mas extends the decree calling for the referendum on the independence of Catalonia. Furthermore, work is under way on the electoral law, which also needs that instrument that it does not currently have to carry out the consultation in a satisfactory manner. Subsequently, at the request of the Spanish Government, the Constitutional Court will suspend it and the ball will again be in favour of the Catalans, who have already decided to withdraw.

There will begin some of the most decisive moments of the sovereign movement, which will have to decide between two ways: Referendum over Spanish legislation; or dissolution of Parliament and call for elections on 9 November. It is not easy to imagine how a referendum can be held over the Spanish Government’s ban, but as an initiative the referendum is clean. Electoral advancement is complicated by the fact that, among other things, the parties have to agree on how they are going to present the idea of independence, or all together or each in their programme. If a referendum were to be held, disobedience to Madrid would be brought forward and, if not, the shock would be left until after the elections, because if sovereign power were to win clearly, the next step would be to declare independence.

Valencian right-wing journalist Pilar Urbano announced last weekend in an interview granted to 'Digital was born' her forecast: Participation of the Spanish Army. However, as Ukraine stands, Europe is not going to understand tenaciously that peaceful movements are being contented with force. And even less three months earlier, when Scotland will be able to hold its referendum on self-determination. The Cup parliamentarian, David Fernández, also pointed out in an interview in February that the Spanish Government could dismantle the Generalitat and set up a manager. The sovereign parties have months ahead of their feet to strengthen their agreements. In the meantime, civil society will again teach the parties where the force is located in the months that run from here to the Diada.