Yes or no, these are the main options for the referendum in Catalonia. There is more, but basically some of them would come out if the referendum is held today. And within eleven months?

Eleven months from now, there will be no referendum. It is difficult to predict what will happen in politics or not, because most of the time it is wrong, but in this case it is quite certain that the referendum will not be held. Interestingly, the Govern ment has knowingly called for a referendum that will not be held and that will take place in Catalonia. That is what Mariano Rajoy and Artur Mas coincide with. Basically, the sovereign movement in Catalonia has launched a long campaign in the face of the plebiscite elections. And the best arm of independence is the non-resounding arm of the Spanish Government.

Soberanism knows that the double question he has asked is confusing, but he also knows that it is a powerful formula for maintaining his unity. Moreover, if the Government of Madrid does not embark on the road to profoundly transforming the political structure of Spain, it will become itself without a referendum, because sovereign power that is not independence will be left with nothing but independence.

But how can we achieve independence if we do not have a referendum? The assumption would be as follows: The Catalan Government convenes a referendum on 9 November 2014 at the Palau de la Generalitat. Madrid says it is not going to be done and it will be, even for different reasons, because both parties are planning to do so. Then, the current Govern ment would dissolve, the elections would be brought forward and these would have a plebiscite character. When? It is difficult to clarify, but it does not seem that once the referendum is banned by Congress, the Mas Government can last a long time. It is not yet clear how the sovereign offer would be organised, but it is clear that it would have a large majority. The Government of Spain would remain closed, so the new Govern ment of Catalonia would proclaim the independence of Catalonia. It seems incredible, but one of the main assumptions is that this is an unreal fact.

And Spain, in the meantime, would do nothing? Surely it is, but for that the Catalan Government should take a major illegal step, and that moment has not yet arrived, and it would surely not come until that declaration of independence of the new government was made.

It is now a question of knowing when the elections would be brought forward. The request for consultation of the Congress of Deputies for the referendum will be discussed in the Catalan Parliament on 15 January. Subsequently, the Catalan parties will have to process the petition in Congress and in February or March, which would give a resounding "no" to the petition.

At the same time, the Spanish Government will bring an action before the Constitutional Court against the convening of a referendum, which will annul the call of the Mas Government. The provision of EUR 5 million for the referendum provided for in the budgets for 2014 will also be cancelled.

However, these decisions are small, the big decisions would come when the Govern Government declared the independence of Catalonia, which is the key. The Spanish Government, for its part, would apply Article 155 of the Constitution and assume the autonomous government of Catalonia. But how do you take from one day to the next a government or the empire of an entire autonomy? Who would be served by thousands of officials and hundreds of thousands of citizens? And what would the international community say when the clear majority of the Catalan Parliament proclaims independence, when the Spanish Government does not want to negotiate anything? In this struggle for legitimacy, is the participation of the Civil Guard or the Army credible?

All of this is just a hypothesis, of course, and even believing is something that seems bad. But would anyone have thought that on 10 September 2012 a CIU government would convene a referendum on self-determination a year later?

And it would also be hypothetical that what is more common in history is that sovereigns do not succeed in Catalonia in a unitary way, as a result of the strict measures of Spain or the fragmentation of independence. Yes, there are still many open doors, but also the doors of independence.