I do not consider myself a rigorous political analyst, but I will share my perception of what is happening in Catalonia and what I think is going to happen. I am referring, of course, to the so-called sovereign process, which for many has become annoying; an irreversible process that, in my opinion, will take us a few months to another state in Europe.

I believe that the whole strategy is focused on NOT holding the referendum. What's more, not even trying. Interestingly, the only hope we can call unionists would be that consultation and the desire for independence would reach a reduced majority, or perhaps lose it. But if there is no consultation, there will be independence.

The key is to prevent the central government, the Spanish Parliament, the decision of a court or whatever can carry out the referendum. With the legal closure of any path towards independence, there will be no alternative but to advance the elections. There is no doubt that the result will be, as hitherto, the absolute majority of the independence parties, that the future Parliament will have and will claim the democratic legitimacy – albeit illegitimately – of unilaterally proclaiming independence. To this end, I insist, it is necessary that consultation be unworkable and not carried out. The stubbornness of Rajoy and Rubalcaba is fundamental for the process to be carried out as desired: with secession.

What can the central government do at this point in the process or at any other later time? Answer: nothing. The abandonment of Catalan autonomy is unthinkable, because there would be a huge administrative problem that no one could solve. First, dismiss the President of the Generalitat and ... Who would replace him? And how?

In addition, the central government cannot expect great things from foreign countries, which are the most vulnerable. It is clear that the threat of “throwing” seven million citizens of Europe will not be met, among other things because those citizens who have voluntarily separated themselves from Spain would not lose Spanish nationality as a result, if Article 11.2 of the Constitution were to be complied with.

Thus, the Unionist side has a unique path to take. By refusing to negotiate and without being able to implement Article 155 of the Constitution, I would have no choice but to make effective the implementation of Article 8, that is, armed intervention.

In short. The referendum, the only reasonable option for unionists, is not going to be held. That is what will legitimise the unilateral declaration of independence, and the situation can only be frustrated in the traditional way, that is, with the force of arms. We'll see the army in the streets. At this point, and indeed, those of us who are in doubt, we will have to choose before or after between nationalists and nationals. I guess I've already chosen it.

Manuel Delgado Ruiz is a PhD in Anthropology from the University of Barcelona, where he teaches in it. He has a blog called El cor de les aparences and published the following article on December 13, 2013.