Saria gora saria behera
Ekonomia Nobel saria urte berean teoria baten egileari eta hori errefusatzen duenari ematearen emaitza garbia zero da, ezereza. Bada, horixe da 2013 urteko saldoa. Tira, badago hirugarren sariduna baina inor gutxik erreparatu du Hansenen –hirugarrenaren– merituetan. Harridura kontuetan ohitzen hasita egon arren, aurtengo Ekonomia Nobel sariarekin batzordekideen eskizofrenia akademikoa nabarmen geratu da. Varoufakisek dioen moduan fisikako saria une berean Galileori eta kondenatu zuten inkisidoreari ematearekin aldera daiteke ekonomia batzordearen aurtengo erabakia. Saritutako bi ekonomialari aurkariak, Eugene Fama eta Robert Shiller dira.
Duela lau bat hamarkada, Famak merkatu efizienteen hipotesia garatu zuen. Finantza merkatuen efizientziaz ari da eta, hipotesi honen arabera, finantza aktiboen prezioek finantza merkatuetako informazio eskuragarri guztia islatzen dute. Hots, finantza merkatuak ez dira inoiz erratzen, bertako saltzaileek zein erosleek batzuetan jokabide okerrak hautatu arren. Famaren unibertso teorikoan ez dago burbuilentzako edota espekulatzaileentzako tokirik. Merkatu efizienteen hipotesia Igurikapen edo espektatiba arrazionalen teoriatik oso gertu dago, baita finantza aktibo eratorrien prezioak ezartzeko ereduetatik ere. Teoria hauek guztiek azken bi hamarkadetako finantza merkatuen garapenerako oinarri teorikoa eskaini dute, egungo Atzeraldi Handiaren iturburua izan den garapen ero eta kontrolik gabekorako alegia.
Famaren teoriaren eduki garrantzitsuena zein irrealena zera da, merkatu efizienteetan arbitrajeak egiteko aukerarik ez dagoela; hots, saltzaileek zein erosleek finantza aktiboen edo beren prezioen gaineko uste okerra izan dezaketen arren honek ez die arbitraje eragiketak egiteko eta espekulatzeko ateak zabaltzen. Ipuintxo batek erakusten du aipatutakoa. Unibertsitateko irakaslearekin doan ikasle batek 10 eurokoa lurrean ikustean hartzeko keinua egiten du. Esperientzia handiagoa duen irakasleak argitu egiten dio egoera: “Ez duzu indarra zertan xahutu behar, billetea benetakoa balitz ez litzateke bertan egongo eta”. Kontuaren irakurketa analitikoa ondokoa da, Merkatu efizienteetan lehiak beti ekiditen du aparteko irabaziak eskuratzeko aukera.
Famaren sari-kidea den Shiller beste muturrean dago kokatuta. Shillerek berak dio Merkatu efizienteen hipotesia “pentsamendu ekonomikoaren historia guztiko errakuntzarik harrigarriena” dela. Izan ere, Famak makroekonomiaz ezer gutxi dakiela aitortzen duelarik Shilleren analisiak espekulazioaren dimentsio makroekonomikoa barneratzen du. Famak ez dakiena Shillerek mahai gainean jartzen du, hots, finantza jardueraren zati esanguratsua espekulatzaile hutsa dela eta ekonomia produktiboarentzat kanpo eragin negatiboak dituela. 2008ko krisia lehertu aurretik Shillerek aktibo ugariren –horien artean higiezinen– prezioen bilakaera aztertzen jardun zuen. Azterketa horretan Amerikako Estatu Batuetako hamar hirietako etxebizitzen prezioen indize sintetikoa nabarmentzen da. Indize horrek 2001 urtetik aurrera inflazio izugarria erakusten zuen. Eugene Famarentzat inoiz lehertu behar ez zuen krisiaren iragarlea izan zen aipatutako indizea.
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In February 2023, I read the news in the press and I was depressed because it surprised me and gave me what to think. The store of Jostaldi Kirolak Erdikale Street in Azpeitia will be closed to the public after 48 years of running.
That made me travel in time. I'd been there... [+]
Next Saturday, 11 January, the Sare citizens' network called for a new demonstration in Bilbao in defence of the rights of Basque prisoners. This is a unique opportunity to move forward on the path of coexistence in our people, after decades of violent confrontation and, even... [+]
Road 20 January. U.S. President Donald Trump will be investigated on January 20. Democratic economic elites have repeatedly tried to put an end to Trump’s life. Will they achieve the target by 20 January? Furthermore, they intend to bring the war to a new, tougher phase. To do... [+]
When we woke up, culturally and administratively, the landscape showed a three-speed disaster.
As far as culture is concerned, I had the opportunity – once again – to confirm this last November 14 at the Mint library in Ortzaize. There we met because Eñaut Etxamendi... [+]
Snow hides the earth and the traces of beings looking for pleasure. Under the beauty of snow there is time, years, generations, ephemerides, quotations; but when time goes by there are words that have not been said before or after. Snow reminds us that we could slip and fall. As... [+]
The world has also done so, because it is a symbol, because in history more genocides have already been done and will be done (bad luck, hear, it has touched you to be born there), but Palestine has special characteristics:
- A long time ago, at the end of the 19th century, it... [+]
They appeared, as usual, through the hut, parked in the center of the passage, in herbs and encharcations so as not to dirty the mills, and went through the road, tracing, to the porch, with a large dish in the hand. As usual, the bûche was ready. In French bûche it can be a... [+]
As the fall ends, the crows appear on Basque Day, in the Basque era or in the Durango Fair. Aware of the results of socio-linguistic surveys on the use of Euskera, the "politically corrective" exercise has no longer drawn anyone's attention. Without Ttattarri, with cool and smiling... [+]
I've done a quick analysis of the technology forecasts for 2025. Like every year, when you talk about what technology is going to bring to the media in 2025, the discourse is very similar. Many of us who write about technology have the anxiety of knowing more than it's going to... [+]
At Christmas they leave a new book on the bedside table. About the philosophy and joy of the house, recently written by Emanuele Coccia. Coccia, an Italian philosopher, has become popular in making known our connections with plants on the road to the construction of a healthy... [+]
There are those who, being a brilliant brain, with definitions of "little detail," are experts in transforming and transforming the same thing, in other words. It was yours and it has been a project in eternum that has been repeated for decades. This was one of the main reasons to... [+]
On 26 December, during an air strike, the Israeli Army killed five Palestinian journalists trying to reach the city. They killed 130 Palestinian journalists. This news has reminded me of a couple of things, the first, the persecution of true journalists in any part of the world,... [+]
In recent months I have had to work in a number of institutes and, at some point, I have had to talk to the students about the possibilities offered by the labour market. The typology of the students is varied and in the same city varies a lot from one neighborhood to another,... [+]