If it is analyzed in cold terms, the only option left to the Spanish State to prevent the independence of Catalonia is the violation of self-government. The betrayal of the Catalan political elites of certain sectors (either voluntarily, in exchange for money, or to maintain their hegemony under the pressure of the economic and media structures that have become dependent on Spain and come from Franco) could also not hinder the unstoppable desire of the citizens.

Perhaps this barbarity would require an intermediate stage, a more flexible intervention, in budgetary terms, on the pretext that the deficit has not been met. But the contradiction between the popular will and the regime of taxation will lead Spain to use violence, because it believes that the danger of repeated murders such as those that have happened throughout history will frighten the Catalan middle classes.

What about the international community? What about the area of peace and security that the European Union has created in this half-century? To think of the worst, if what they call “national survival” is at stake, leads us to foresee that Spain can put all the machinery in place. For the start of international mobilizations, it would be too late.

Because we're not just talking about Catalonia. Aznar himself, who is now working in secret against his successor [Rajoy] to appear as the savior, advanced the following when in 2005 the Catalan Parliament adopted a proposal for reform of the Statute: “The Balkanisation of Spain begins.” The ghost of Yugoslavia has taken over the Iberian Peninsula with the independence of one of its richest parts, as stealing from the middle will continue in the other profitable regions. The Basque Country and the rest of the Catalan countries (Valencia and the Balearic Islands) that would see the economic concert fall (the only obstacle hindering the will for independence of the Basques) would continue to be even more exhausted and tightened in the Spanish kingdom.

Looking at it, the negative thinking related to Catalonia is softened if we recognize that it has played the role of Slovenia: a rapid and effective separation, with ten days of conflict and a few deaths. The disaster will spread to the rest of Spain, where Castile, impotent, poor, corrupt and isolated, will put an end to the few forces left to shake its hatreds. What, then, will Bosnia be of the Spanish conflict? Which territory with a nationalist majority will suffer the most pain? Navarra? Valencian countries?