UPN has been in a hurry for some time and also for several reasons: The rupture with the PP at the end of 2008, the lack of opportunities for solitary government with the PP after the elections, the economic crisis and the environment that have generated the cutbacks in Navarre, the rupture of the coalition government with the PSN, all the scandals of the CAN… and now a deep internal crisis that is reflected in the struggle between Yolanda Barcina and Alberto Catalan. And what in one camp is a crisis, in the other is seen as an opportunity.

That other area is the opposition, which Barcina is wearing out from week to week and which, again, sees the possibility of taking UPN out of power in Navarre, because, at least in theoretical terms, the real possibilities are much smaller. But there is, and there is, not only because the Right of Navarre is in a hurry and in recent years it is dragging itself into power, but because there are possibilities, because the opposition has also strengthened and can continue to consolidate. Nationalism, with EH Bildu and Geroa Bai, can improve the current good position in the near future; and a coalition such as I-E (Ezker Batua-Batzarre), either because the crisis gives it opportunities, as has happened in Spain in many places, and, above all, because of the distance allowed by the PSN so far.

Among Navarros it is almost unimaginable to imagine UPN out of power, and even more unimaginable to see nationalists in government. Six years ago, however, this possibility was about to materialize, when in the summer of 2007 the PSN, NaBai and NEB joined together to form a government chaired by Fernando Puras. Ferraz opposed it. And then, ETA is still in action and without having given rise to the explosion of the crisis in Europe, if it was almost possible, today it is even more possible. The Abertzales have more strength than ever, UPN is more concerned and the PSN with the worst electoral result in its history and the weight of having been in coalition with UPN. There are possibilities.

And that's what frustrates Alberto Catalana and UPN's party apparatus: As in 2007, instead of resorting to nationalists, the PSN moves to UPN on the pretext of defending the current status of Navarre. UPN will hold the congress on 17 March and during these weeks we will see better what her internal situation is, but it seems that Mrs Barcina has gone too far in her dreams and that they will cut her head. First he cuts his neck in the match, and with that his trajectory as president would also be scarce.

You can make several hypotheses. If Catalan wins, one should see the character of Barcina and the pride that would allow him to continue as president of the government. It would be possible, but it would already be touched, and it also continues to have the case of Caja Navarra in the courts. But in the minority and also without the support of the party… the logical thing would be to resign.

After the resignation, it would have to be seen whether the elections are ahead, but there are reasons to think that UPN is not interested in progress and that it will try to gain time, both to consolidate itself and to redirect relations with the PSN. And if Barcina resigned and did not pre-empt the elections, as someone has to be lehendakari, the option of Alberto Catalana is that, in the second vote, the 19 UPN parliamentarians would be enough to be elected.

That is if the opposition is not strong enough to be an alternative, and it does not seem that the PSN is such a party. What is more, even if it is prepared, it would not be the best option at this time of legislature. In the opposition, the Basque forces are key to any alternative government, but also the PSN to complete it. And there's the dilemma that if the PSN reuses UPN, it could get on its way to its disappearance. In any situation and in any logic, EH Bildu and Geroa Bai should continue to strengthen, as being strong they could more easily attract the PSN. And for nationalism to be strong in Navarre, we need the struggle between EH Bildu and Geroa Bai, but also the collaboration to articulate a common strategy.

In Navarre there is a slow concentration of abertzal and progressive forces, and there are possibilities to continue accumulating. The ability to read the reality of Navarre society, the ability to connect with social movements and the great doses of patience are essential in the construction of an alternative government. So long as we are dealing with adverse conditions, and even more so when we are dealing with aspects. And yet, there is scope for moving forward.