To start with, I'm going to ask you to make a brief diagnosis.
There is a historical relationship between the greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere and the average temperature of the planet. Since the beginning of industrialization, both concentration and temperature have increased. Since the time before industrialization, the temperature of the planet has increased by 0.6 degrees, although not linearly. This increase has not been homogeneous. In most regions of the planet, the temperature has risen, and in some cases, slightly decreased. This shows the change in the mass and energy flows of the planet, which will intensify. It must be borne in mind that the climate is influenced by many phenomena. It is therefore difficult to determine to what extent changes are the result of anthropic phenomena and to what extent natural phenomena are. The Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change (IPCC), in its fourth report, stressed the need to model natural climate phenomena and concluded that only human influence could explain these changes. We adapt our society, our economy and our natural environment to the changes that are coming, enhancing the resilience or adaptability of the environments, and taking advantage of the opportunities that may arise in the field of new crops or economic activities.
What do you think of the measures taken over the past two decades to address climate change?
The current international framework is the Kyoto protocol and establishes commitments for 37 countries, in addition to the European Union. This is an important step as the problem is accepted and the need to address it is established, taking into account the difficulties of such an international treaty. This protocol, agreed with the aim of reducing emissions by 5% compared to 1990, is based on the commitments made by the signatories, as well as the use of flexible mechanisms. These mechanisms would, on the one hand, reduce the cost of reduction and, on the other hand, facilitate access to technology in less developed countries in order to promote low-carbon development. However, over the years it has been seen that this medium has not been sufficient for reasons such as those of countries with greenhouse gas emissions that had not signed, such as the United States, or others considered to be emerging at the time, such as China or India, some flexible mechanisms are not effective and sometimes produce negative effects, so they need to be reviewed. The concentration of CO2 equivalent in the atmosphere is not being maintained, so it was set as an immediate goal not to exceed the two-degree increase based on IPCC reports. This means that we should keep the concentration of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere between 400 and 550 parts per million, and we are increasingly far from achieving it.
What is the situation after the Rio+20 summit? What do you think of what has been agreed there?
Rio+20 is much more than climate change. In Rio+20, we tried to design the future that we want for our planet, and to reach compromises and agreements to achieve it. However, it is very difficult to make global decisions to solve global problems, as governments are state. The work, structure and capacity of the UN are valuable but not sufficient. The interests of each country make it difficult to create a document. Finally, what has been agreed is based on voluntary commitments. However, the fact that this is a summit with greater participation in history indicates the awareness of Governments of the need for change.
I assume that you will be familiar with the policies of the European Union. What can you say about them?
The European Union is taking a firm lead in managing its responsibility for climate change. A target was set in 2009: to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020 compared to 2005, whether or not there are international agreements, whether renewables account for 20% of total energy and whether energy efficiency improves by 20%. Famous 20-20-20. The emission reduction target would be set at 30% if an international agreement was reached. In order to achieve these objectives, a number of regulations have been established. With regard to emissions trading, stricter conditions will apply to the industry subject to the standard between 2013 and 2020. The Effort Sharing Directive sets targets to be met for all Member States in the other sectors. These directives are complemented by one dealing with energy efficiency and which will review the legislation in the event that predetermined improvements are not achieved. This general regulation is accompanied by sectoral regulations for discharges of means of transport, use of fluorinated substances, eco-design, construction, etc. And every year, more new laws emerge. In the long term, specifically by 2050, the target of reducing emissions by 80% has been put on the table (taking 1990 discharge as a reference).
What would be the next steps in Europe and in general?
Europe needs to maintain its firm commitment and attract other countries around the world around similar commitments. And it is necessary to reach agreements that allow the developed countries to reduce their impact and allow the development of others through less carbon economies than the developers used in their day. Agreements are needed to deal with the energy and economic changes that are coming and to develop technologies that will enable us to do this work. Citizens must be made aware, not only to collaborate, but also to demand progress. Finally, insofar as scientific knowledge allows, we must now evaluate the changes that are intended and not desired, despite the reduction in emissions, and we must prepare our society to adapt as best as possible to the new context of arrival.
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