Blog Diario de Berlin, 20-11-2011. La Vanguardia

Europe is on its way to dissolution. From the hand of Germany With a policy of unilateral additive austerity and a tenacious and reiterative attitude against the review of the European Central Bank’s mission. What is the reason for this dogmatic monetarist silk? On the one hand, the conceptual mentality and, on the other, the inertia of the activity at the service of the financial sector. They lead us to the second defeat.

In the medium term, Merkel’s ‘excellent recipe’ for controlling the European crisis is even more absurd. It is a reform of the Union Treaties in order to institutionally shield a discipline that is causing debt growth and drowning the economy of certain countries. First, the weakest ones fall, but then the strongest exporters fall, harmed by the recession that is beginning to emerge. The right of intervention of this false line is a direct way to the speedy dissolution of Europe.

A recession in Europe and a cooling of the situation in the world are expected in 2012, which will lead to the revolt of the peoples of Europe, a new International that has already begun to manifest itself. The erroneous decisions of external institutions that we have not chosen enlarge the social environment and trigger a strong nationalist reaction in favour of the sovereignty of peoples. It was 1848.

In Europe in 1848 the “spring of peoples” called into question the order of the absolutist restoration. The order of the Vienna Congress was untenable. Now there is capitalism that's called "neoliberal," or maybe capitalism without adjectives. We don't know what's going to come, but it has to be different. Within this system, the disturbing stress that dominates human beings and the planet is becoming increasingly unbearable.

In a failed absolutist order, a small caste, for example 1%, makes the decisions that the remaining 99% consider unfair and wrong. The feeling that we live on the street in an absolutist order that has the power, goods and privileges in the hands of a very small minority and that leads the rest to absolute failure. And it is increasingly present in today's Europe. The impotence of national politicians and institutions has also been highlighted. Voting does not matter: power and decisions are in another place, in an unchosen place. All of this is an invitation to rebellion that can finally be considered a necessity.

In 1848, like telegraph and rail, new information technologies have to do now, with their confused excess of information, crazy immediacy and computer activism, but the basic content and impulses are the same: reject absolutism and vindicate citizenship.

The new Republican subject has changed in Europe. In a continent much richer and much older demographically than in the 19th century, everyone has a lot to lose. This suggests that non-violence by citizens has a new meaning and many spaces in their favor. On the other hand, the violent use of the established system can play against the system itself.

Many of these elements were seen 20 years ago, when the Soviet Union failed, when the recipes of the old regime did not work, because of the lack of belief and the broken structure. And soon another 1848 can happen in Europe: an uncontrollable and unintelligible spiral dismantling. In the most optimistic situation, one could think of rebuilding a European project based on citizenship (and not on companies). As for the most pessimistic situations, there is nothing more to do with the belligerent and aggressive history of Europe. Will Europe learn from its experience?

What about Spain? The return of post-Francoists to the Madrid Government, which has all the signs of being particularly submissive to the worst European policy, will speed up the spiral of disintegration in Spain and increase dissatisfaction. Will territorial union and monarchy succeed in overcoming the assumption of 1848?