There are many reasons to believe that OIL is at the heart of the attack on Libya, far more than to think that the main cause of the attack is the defence of civilians. The 1973 UN resolution is based on the protection of civilians, but so far the weapons of the coalition led by France, the United Kingdom and the United States show that this is not the case, since they are destroying all kinds of infrastructures under Gaddafi’s control. As a result, the Arab League, for example, which supported the operation against Gaddafi, has shown disagreement with the nature of the attacks.

In order to bring about the fall of the Libyan regime, and to learn from the mistakes and dangers of the direct invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, the Western forces will aim to strike hard at the Libyan infrastructure and strengthen the armed opposition. We already know the beginning, but the experience of these military attacks tells us that predicting the end is a very different matter. On several other occasions the West has also protected its interests, but worsening the situation of its citizens (Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia...).

The first is oil, not the people. In countries such as Morocco (with locals and Saharawis), Algeria, Yemen, Barhein and Palestine, the repression of civilians is very harsh, but no such measures are taken. Same in other parts of the world, from China to Honduras. The West defends its own interests, not the citizens oppressed by dictatorships.

75% of Libya’s oil goes to the European Union: 32% to Italy, 13.4% to Germany, 10% to France, 8.6% to Spain... And on the list of world oil reserves, it is Libya 9.ena. At the moment it is very important in the price of oil and strategic in a world where oil will become increasingly scarce.

It must be acknowledged, however, that this military aggression has protected the insurgents and civilians in Benghazi. According to all the indications, and seeing how Gaddafi's army was winning the war, there are many reasons to believe that Benghazi would be the target of bloody revenge. If, however, the real objective was to prevent a possible massacre, it might be sufficient to stop the Gaddafi forces in Benghazi and use diplomatic force for the rest. Making it clear that there is no room for brutal repression, all of the following is up to the Libyans to resolve, and the UN should offer all of its support to that end. The same in other Arab countries.

It is not clear what could happen now, but at least two scenarios could be foreseen in the short term. One is the continuation of the international aggression and the internal explosion of the Gaddafi regime (desertions...). The other scenario would be longer: Libya is divided into two, the regime in the west and the insurgents in the east, and after the long war and with the support of the Western powers, the insurgents win. In one way or another, it is clear that Gaddafi has done it.

THAT IS TRUE, once again, the hypocrisy of many Western countries has become clear. In recent years we have all seen on TV and photos how the Libyan colonel has travelled from city to city in Italy, France, Spain... From 2005 to 2009 Germany sold almost 86 million euros of military equipment to Libya; with the current attacks France itself may have landed the Mirage aircraft sold to Libya; and Spain ordered the suspension at the end of February of the military equipment that was being sold to Libya.

The essence of the uprisings in the Arab countries lies in their unsustainability with regard to their dictatorships; poverty and other explosive agents have been involved. Over the course of the year - and oil and support for Israel are always at the core - these dictatorships have been supported by the West, which has managed them on its own, now using Saddam Hussein against Iran, or later Gaddafi against Al Qaeda. From the first colonialism, then dressed in post-colonialism.

If the real goal is the development of peoples, the protection of civilians and democracy, there is no room in this context for the parachutist policies of the West. There are complex situations in which there is no single, simplistic answer within the framework of the Arab uprisings. The UN should support citizens who oppose any dictatorship, always making certain fundamental principles: the interest of citizens, the sovereignty of countries and the fact that military force is the last resort. But this will not be tender, because, on the one hand, the main countries of the West still prioritize their interests now; and, on the other hand, it is necessary to start from home to be an example. For example, when will the UN reform end the right of veto of the main countries?