A wide window of hope has been opened in Basque society, around which there is broad consensus. Even those who dream of the victorious and the defeated have admitted that something is changing in the Patriotic Left, however, to immediately return to the theory of the trap of change.Once the nationalist left has taken a clear position, now it is necessary to wait for what ETA says, but paying attention to its last two documents, it could be assumed that it will continue along the same lines until now, among other reasons because the nationalist left has left no more room for it. Silence would not be the best sign.

Immediate antecedents of the Basques

After the Loyola talks in 2007, the Patriotic Left was experiencing an uncomfortable internal situation. By the summer of 2009, the leadership of the patriotic left had prepared a discussion report and by November thousands of militants had held a substantive debate. The Altsasu Declaration represented the end of all this:“(...) It is time for a change of cycle that will replace armed confrontation, blockade and lack of hope with dialogue, agreement and a just, stable and lasting solution for the Basque Country.” “(...) the democratic process must be carried out without total violence and without interference, only by political and democratic means.” It was the end of a cycle and the beginning of a new one.

The conclusions of the debate were compiled in the document Just Standing Basque Country, published in February 2010. The following was the start of the road map:Brussels Declaration, Gernika Agreement, Indicate the Basque Country, strategic agreement reached with EA, Basque Country from the Left (with EA and Alternativa), Create... And, what cannot be forgotten, among the inevitable truce of ETA that makes all this possible, verifiable for the first time in its long history by international actors.

Defeat or victory?

It was believed that the general rejection of violence would be used in the presentation of Sorturen in Euskalduna. But the surprise was immense, Rufi Etxeberria and Iñigo Iruin far exceeded this barrier, rejecting also the violence of ETA in the future and showing the statutes prepared to comply with the Law of the Parties from top to bottom.It was like the Swan Wave.

If the nationalist left has moved in this way, the statist vision immediately insists that it is because the state has relegated it. And to a certain extent it is not without reason, because even those who have promoted this change of direction have recognized that the Patriotic Left was in a state of blockade, and that the key to the change of strategy has been to get out of it.

In the 80’s, “resisting is defeating” (to be more precise, it was called “resistir es vencer”) was one of the symbols of ENAM. Although with heavy wear and tear, this mentality took root until the Loyola process. After the defeat of Loyola, the patriotic left has disseminated through the mouth of Arnaldo Otegi a conception that leaves the old slogan aside and summarizes the strategic change: “He was born not to resist, but to win the Patriotic Left.”

“The Patriotic Left has left Lerín with militant discipline [one of the peoples resisted by the Carlists in the Second Carlist War] and with order and cohesion that can be stripped of its beret. The leaders of all the institutions that have carried it out have worked with the courage, the flexibility and the power to lead this country in a clandestine and harsh prison sentences.” It is the paragraph of an article published by José Mari Esparza, editor of the publishing house Chalaparta, and probably reflects well how the strategic change is experienced within the Patriotic Left.

What about the elections?

The first results of the sober accumulation of forces will be seen in the May elections. But in addition, we will also see the will of the Spanish Government to approach the peace process from the ramifications. The best sign would be to legalize Create for Elections. If this is not the case, the peace process will only be postponed, because for it to take place in its broadest sense (prisoners, victims, party table...) it is essential that the nationalist left first has a legal political entity. And sooner rather than later it will be, because in a situation of non-violence the illegal situation only strengthens the patriotic left.

The PSOE government knows this, but it would like to play the most desired medal against Spanish society and achieve the following: Create in exchange for legalization that ETA announces its end. There is reason to think that he will try to do so, and in this sense he is interested in not legalizing Crear now, on the one hand for avoiding the pressure of the PP, and on the other because he can make better use of this ending later in view of the Spanish general elections of 2012. It is just a matter of whether the Constitutional Court will allow it.

Due to the nationalist left, two electoral options are foreseen that may have some variables: If it is legal to create, the sovereign accumulation will be reflected together with the EA and the Alternative in the three deputations of the Basque Country. And in Navarre with EA. If the creation is not legal, the game of legalization of popular candidates will be repeated in the municipalities, as in 2007; and in the deputations the EA and the Alternative would collect this group of votes, with or without net candidates of the patriotic left depending on the conditions.

It would be a situation never given and there is a lot of vision about the number of votes that this first germ of the super-proverbial pole can collect. They contain ingredients that usually have a strong attraction among patriots:the state of ceasefires, the alliance of left patriots and, most importantly, the possibility of definitively overcoming the armed struggle.

At least for Gipuzkoa there is a fierce rivalry with the PNV and it will be necessary to see to what extent Aralar, who has been left out of this bet, wears out – by name – the Basque Country from the Left. Aralar decided to present himself only in the UAE before the Euskalduna and the atmosphere that has awakened the presentation of Sortu can lead to a narrow port. Here we will see how far the loyalty of the 62,000 votes obtained in the elections to the Basque Parliament in 2009, in which the Union asked for an invalid vote, reaches, but there is no doubt that for many of them the future offered by the Nationalist Left, the EA and the Alternative is very attractive.

It has always been said that without ETA the Basque political map will change. In Navarre this has become more evident than anywhere in recent weeks and the patriots will compete in two unusual blocs: What remains of the 2007 NaBai (a group of Aralar, PNV and independents) on the one hand, and the nationalist left and EA on the other. For today, it is not yet clear what the structure of these squares will be, but it is clear that these two blocks will be in intense competition. At least by April 18, the lists will need to be completed.

Looking at numbers, there will be a variety of comparisons, but here are some references: The Basque Citizen (EH) candidacy (HB + Batzarre) obtained 47,000 votes in the 1999 provincial elections in Navarre and almost 78,000 (with the Nationalist Left candidatures illegally) by NaBai in 2007. As for the Basque Country, the RD obtained 224,000 votes in the 1999 elections to the Basque Parliament.

Numbers are not the cornerstone at this time, the priority is to put a dignified end to the conflict for the future and for this the most important thing is to consolidate well the roots to deepen the peace process. Whoever facilitates this path will be reaped; whoever hinders it will be punished. Or at least it should be. But at the same time, the numbers are also the key to the new future that is spreading and, in this sense, the battle of numbers is expected to be as dramatic as it is until May 29.