Some say that in 2017 there was a lack of decision and willingness to take risks (“the time when the state was overwhelmed was not taken advantage of”). Others say that the problem is that the declaration of independence of 27 October has not materialized (“if the Government had made progress and continued the mobilization we would be independent”). Valencian political scientist Jordi Muñoz, however, has another opinion: I believe that Catalonia is not independent because in 2017 the conditions for independence were not given.

Principi de realitat. A proposta per a l’endemà del Procés (Jordi Muñoz, 2020, Ed. L’Avenç). What was the main error of Procés? Independence never exceeded the 50% threshold (in the 25S it reached 47%, in the U1 of 2017 the participation was 43% and in the A21 of 2017 independence returned to 47%). It's a large majority, but it's not enough. Without this legitimacy that gives a clear majority greater than 50%, Muñoz has stated that "independence cannot be achieved". The Spanish State lost democratic legitimacy to the Catalans, yes, but the loss of legitimacy of the enemy does not automatically give full legitimacy to the alternative. That legitimacy must be worked on and won.

In any case, Muñoz says that the Procés, although he has shown that it is very difficult to achieve independence, has also shown us that independence, as a socio-political movement, and public opinion in favour of independence is stronger and more resilient in Catalonia. Independence has never come that far. It has more and more stable social and electoral support and continues to have an upward trend (not repression, quite the opposite).

I delve into the idea of the movement by saying that in the last decade a sociopolitical movement has been built based on a network of different actors that have combined a close collaboration and competition in Catalonia, very related to the associative fabric of a country with a plural and transversal sociology. It also stresses that the movement maintains complex relationships with a part of the economic elite and, although ideologically progressive, also with a large part of the most vulnerable sector, especially the metropolitan sector.

Muñoz puts at the base of this movement, as three concentric circles, traditional independence (which was the minority), the constant reference to the right of self-determination and the will of a vast majority transversally to improve self-government. This latent energy is activated by the process of state reform. It also attaches particular importance to the triartit of 2003 and to the reform of the Statute that the author of the book built a bridge between the two worlds (ERC-PSC/ICV): a part of the federalist Catalanism will use that bridge to move on to independence. “Without that alliance, it would be very difficult to reach the place where we are today.”

However, as the book says, independence has not grown in anything, but in a concrete context and in interaction with other actors. Among the reactions provoked by the procés, three stand out: The authoritarian response of the State, the polarization within Catalonia (as evidenced by the electoral success of Cs) and the nostalgia of the traditional Catalanism velle that misses the calm status quo.

Under these conditions, the independence movement is strengthened, coinciding with the agreed roadmap from 2015 to 2017. This unit is considered a miracle by Muñoz, since in the framework of this confluence three different hypotheses were collected: for some the referendum, a tool to boost negotiation (to force the State to negotiate), for others it was a tool for lifting (to defend the result on the street and to create a lifting to the State, hypotheses that gains strength in the strike of 3 October) and for the majority it was a tool for exconnection prés What happens is that none of the three hypotheses have any effect. The State will not negotiate, it is impossible to maintain the mobilization carried out by the uprising and the State has demonstrated its strength (peaceful disconnection was a chimera).

And so comes the time when independence divides between traitors and hyperventilats. What to do? Jordi Muñoz proposes a path.

The year 2017 was a constitutional crisis, and we are now entering a new balance, more stable or more unstable, which will last more or less, but which, in any case, will define the playing field for the coming years. With the independence of Exprés, the new balance will be the one that establishes the evolution of Catalan and Spanish politics.

Basically three things can happen in the state: consolidating the present left-wing majority, governing by the three right or an intermediate balance, a kind of grand coalition.

In Catalonia, on the contrary, four things can happen: to expand independence, to stop where independence is, but to increase consensus in favor of the right to decide, to stop where current positions are, or to wear off independence.

With different combinations, the author concludes that the probability of transition to a political solution depends fundamentally on the evolution of independence. Only if it is able to strengthen independence and articulate 70% in favour of a democratic solution can a positive solution be imagined.

Aware of this, it defines a strategy to increase the chances of winning, focusing on two variables: on the one hand, achieving a clear majority in favour of independence and, on the other, articulating a broad and transversal majority in favour of the referendum for a democratic solution. These are two different things and, therefore, we have to think differently.

Votes for independence are growing over time and will only be maintained if mobilisation continues (demobilization is the greatest danger for many movements). However, the author considers that the key to exceeding 50% is the governance of the institutions we have today. It is not enough to achieve institutional power; what is decisive is what is done with that power. Muñoz believes that independence has suffered a governance deficit since 2017: if people feel that it does not solve the concrete problems of everyday life, and it only poses an unknown future, it will be difficult to unite new people to independence.

The good or bad governance of autonomy made by independence will serve the voter to know how the independent republic will be. It is true that what can be done is very limited, but it is better to seek solutions than to use that limit as an excuse to do nothing. The first obligation of sovereign parties is to use the instruments at their disposal to solve problems, to transform reality and to demonstrate the advantages of sovereignty with what it has done.

However, Muñoz says that a clear majority is not enough: independence has a chance to win if a referendum is held with clear and agreed rules between the supporters of the yes and no, and therefore if it is ensured that the loser will accept the results. So far, this 70% has been impossible to articulate, among other reasons, because procés have generated emotional polarization. To overcome this emotional distance, the construction of bridges is essential. In the wave that independence raised in 2017, people were scared because they thought their rights were going to be violated. Independence did not empathize with that fear.

A fundamental instrument for the construction of bridges and for the pacification of this emotional polarization is to think of common guarantees for and against independence: to agree on the guarantees of the decision-making processes and to ensure the institutional harmony of the diverse identities and cultures of the future, whatever the result, dependence or independence. The practice of tolerance and inclusion can reach a consensus in the procedures.

The commitment to dialogue can also help along this path. In this sense, Muñoz has considered that the dialogue table, whether results are given or not. Another key that can help the political articulation of 70% is the elaboration of a consensus against the authoritarian response and the repression of the State. And also at international level, with a clear majority in favour of independence and with a broad front in favour of the referendum, it seems to him that the situation would change a great deal.

The book is excellent and highly recommended. The procés immerse themselves in the complexity of all this with determination, give many keys and value in the face of despair, defeatism or discouragement what independence has achieved in this decade. More importantly, it proposes a path towards independence.

Jordi Muñoz has earned an additional merit: for the first time I have read a book in Catalan from start to finish.