With the 2008 crisis, we were reading eleven books on economics, we were all talking as economics experts, in bars. Now that hundreds of articles on epidemiology have been absorbed, the temptation to write about the pandemic is great. Today I would like to comment on some of the political locations that have taken place in the confinement, because many pictures have been taken very quickly through our eyes.

In new ways of making politics, where media “hyper-leadership” has become the norm, the spokespeople for political parties move as chips on a chessboard. In the face of events, each team chooses a box, black or white, and in most cases, where one could think beforehand, trying to protect a particular space with respect to competition.

Thus, in the early days of the pandemic, representatives of the political groups informed us from their webcam of the best recipe against the virus. In the crisis that we are experiencing, despite the fact that the advice of scientists is very necessary, politicians, convinced that they must give explanations about everything that happens, each settled firmly on the chessboard. I confess that in a few days I also found the conduct of some men indecent, because I find it sad to shed light on the dead, who were piling up day after day, and to shoot at the supporters of the struggle.

It is not worth mentioning the Spanish right, as they are able to insinuate any barbarity in view of the intellectual provision of their leaders, be it casting the laundry in breakfast or who knows what. I have looked more closely at other movements because, as I said, during these eight weeks everything has moved at full speed.

For starters, it's been amazing to see Urkullu angry. Because initially the presidency was stolen from “manu militari” by Denis Itxaso. Later, however, when it was up to him to protect Confesbask’s interests, we saw more indignation at the head of the Lakua government. Surely the businessmen would take it very seriously, because one of the few days we have seen outside their boxes has been one of them.

In the coming weeks, in the name of the “Sacred Right of Leisure”, claiming the freedoms of citizenship, demanding from Sanchez the “Basque management” of the pandemic, although he wanted to symbolize that he joined the will of the humble citizenship, the bad image given did not improve. The streamlining of the call for elections has highlighted the objective of their movements.

EH Bildu spokespeople have given more surprises. Urkullu was wrong, it was obvious, but it was not normal that Sánchez’s decisions were not continually praised. Less when the powers of the Southern Statutes, in use of Constitution 78, were abrogated. It was not normal for Sanchez and Chivite to praise his attitude and only criticize Urkullu.

In the future we have learned that, thanks to Podemos’s intermediation, other movements have also accelerated in these weeks. Talks have been held with strategic content and the first reflection has been the text signed by Podemos and which has been signed by PSOE and EH Bildu.

If you decide to go to the Madrid Parliament, it is understandable that you want to influence it. It is understandable and applausible to help improve the living conditions of the humble people living in the Iberian Peninsula, whether they are our compatriots or not. Other readings that have been made about this fact generate more inconvenience.

A near future

The PSOE is going to speak, I have no doubt that in a few months' time it will be reconciled with CEOE and IBEX 35, with the help of UGT and CCOO. The Spanish right is too wild, and the "markets" are going to negotiate for a season with the government of Sánchez.

However, more than this fact, I have observed other movements. With this firm, EH Bildu consolidates the strategic relocation it has been carrying out in recent years.

Since the assumption and prioritization of the CAPV framework in the strategic line, several steps have been taken: The motto “Country Agreement” (on the CAV, apparently); the incorporation of the self-government paper; the replacement of the right to decide by the right to self-determination...In recent years the main objective of all tactical and strategic movements was to mobilize or embarrass the PNV. It has not happened. On this occasion, the ball goes to the PSOE with the pendulum movement underway.

The context is very special, it cannot be denied. Without the deputy who adds Podemos and PSOE in Catalunya and Hego Euskal Herria, in the Spanish State the Sociopath Right is governed, which would bring a massacre to the humble citizens, both Euskal Herria and Catalunya. It cannot be denied that, in the short term, any government that may be in Madrid will be worse than that of Sánchez Iglesias. We must not forget that the new situation created by the pandemic brings us a difficult future for all. However, there are those who do not see with good eyes that EH Bildu moves from an attitude that demanded the democratic breakdown into areas that can pass to co-governance in Spain.

This is a paradigm shift, a clear exponent of game change. I have no doubt that when EH Bildu tries to negotiate with the governments of the kingdom of Spain, social content will prevail. The negotiation of the NIP and the model of co-governance has other interests, but there is nothing there. Even though the contents were different, once traversed this Rubiko, PNV and EH Bildu would act in common spaces. Before the independence process began, it would be suspended and, in passing, the gap in the independence process of Catalonia would widen for the benefit of the State.

You know what's going to happen, because everything is very changing. In the short term, I believe that the change made by EH Bildu gives “centrality” to the PSOE. The PSE has a very poor candidate, but the wind is right.

It is possible that the Andalusian couple has obtained more parliamentarians than EH Bildu in the Basque Parliament in Vitoria-Gasteiz. It is very possible, it is very likely that these two will bring to EH Bildu a government pact signed earlier, and EH Bildu will certainly not accept it. Since the data will not give the opportunity to do something like Chivite has done, and since the PNV will do its own thing and the two so that they do not become entrenched with certainty, the best result is the PNV/PSE government, with a reinforced PSE.

Without the movements that have taken place in Madrid, the PNV/PSE government was also certain, but the new scenario would leave an empty space, that of the transformative left and that of independence. After passing a Rubikon, there is no turning back without a complete internal crisis.

About six years have been lost in search of a ghost: Sovereign PNV. The same cannot be lost, looking for a possible left PSE/PSN and Euskaltzale. Pendulum movements are very dangerous, it seems there's movement in the viewer's eyes, but the key is intimately tied in the ceiling and there's no real movement. In fact, the ceiling is not glass, but an iron ceiling grabbed into a solid chain, a roof in which this people and the popular class are prisoners.

Three policy areas are currently being structured in Europe: the neo-fascist right at one end; the neo-liberals and the social liberals at the centre; and the transformative left at the other end. The search for “centrality” leads too often to “centrism”. Let us not forget that it is those in half who elected the most powerful in the management of the 2008 crisis.

At that time, politicians and states lost power in favor of transnational corporations. Now, in the new crisis that you want to perpetuate, states want to regain power, but let's not think that those media, all of a sudden, will use it to change the socioeconomic model. If they can, the “new reality” will be the twin brother of the old reality, with a difference, the authoritarianism of states will be strengthened.

Let us not dream that the PNV will fall into the line of Trump and other psychopaths, the PNV is not UPN. PNV and PSE/PSN support the same model. The privatizations we criticize, the precariousness, kindness and the devastating model have been built by the PNV and the PSOE. The PNV will not become entrenched. On the contrary, if we do not act clearly, what will be deactivated in the Basque Country will be a sovereign and transformative area.