Most of the territory of Syria is controlled by the present Bashar al-Assad government or by the forces allied with it, although to say control is very quick, as is now being seen. In late November, groups led by the HTS (Organisation for the Liberation of Levant) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) took Aleppo and on Thursday took Hama, the fourth city of Syria. As you move south, you're thinking about the capital of Damascus, but first you're going to try to take Homs. According to the experts, if it were achieved, the situation in Damascus would be in a hurry with the results.

The Syrian civil war, in the context of the Arab Spring, began in 2011, and has left in the midst of hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions displaced to Syria. Since the beginning of the war, Aleppo was at the forefront of the opposition forces, dominated by the jihadist group and supported mainly by Turkey. Al-Qaeda, its branch, the Al Nusra Front – later HTS –, the Islamic State, or the SNA are the acronyms that have triumphed in Northwestern Syria in recent years, especially in the province of Idlib, even fighting among them.

Take advantage of the ceasefire in Lebanon

The ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel entered into force on 27 November and from there the jihadist groups began to move towards Aleppo. Aleppo was received in two days and can be read in numerous international media that were also surprised by the weakness of the Syrian Army.

In any case, the attack took place at that special time, in the complicated Middle East chess table, and when the main allies of the Syrian Government live in their homes quite complex situations: Russia is immersed in the war in Ukraine and thinks how to avoid the attacks of Iran, Israel and the United States; and Hezbollah, which had significant support in the war in Syria, is in a critical position to face Israel.

Turkey shocks

In any event, and this is recognised by analysts of all colours, this attack by Aleppo would not be possible without Turkey’s approval. According to David Hearst Middle, co-editor of the newspaper East Eye, this attack has been preparing for the past eighteen months and has been stopped. And why now? One of the factors mentioned is the number of Syrian refugees in Turkey, three million Syrians are currently living in Turkey, and the Turkish opposition is increasingly using xenophobia against them, “we do not want more Arabs!”, to oppose the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Russia, Iran and Turkey will meet this weekend at the Doha Forum, to be held in Qatar on 7 and 8 December.

The Kurds are afraid

More or less, north-west Syria has been in the hands of Turkey and several Syrian opposition groups supported by Turkey for the past five or six years, and the northeast has been divided between Kurds and the Syrian Government. The latter two players have, in general, acted in allies during the civil war against the Islamic State and other groups, although they have sometimes also acted against them.

The leadership of the Kurds is carried by the YPG militias, which have had to deal mainly with the Islamic State (IS) and other groups related to Al Qaeda, as well as with the Turkish Government. The Kurdish YPG militias are allies of the PPK and Turkey regards them as terrorists. He has been very opposed to them in this war. At the same time, YPG received military support from EE.UU. when he acted against the Islamic State. Turkey now intends to occupy the land now controlled by YPG, which may mean the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Kurds in Turkey. In this complicated situation, the forces of HTS and SNA continue south and may even jeopardise Damascus himself.