On November 3, we will know if Donald Trump is still in the White House. The US electors will have to elect the 538 representatives who have the responsibility of electing their president. A certain number of representatives are elected in each State. Democrats and Republicans must bring together at least 270 deputies to designate Joe Biden or Donald Trump as President of the General Assembly.

The electoral system grants all representatives of that state (except Maine and Nebraska) to the successful candidate in each state. The key is the number of representatives, rather than the number of votes. The number of representatives per population in each State is chosen. Therefore, in addition to historically winning states that are Democrats (northeast and west coast) or Republicans (interior and south), we must overcome the swing states or dubious states that do not have a clear tradition to overcome the barrier of 270.

What are the uncertain states of the 2020 presidential elections?

Michigan and Wisconsin (26 representatives):

Examples of the country ' s industrial belt are the territories heavily impoverished by the chronic crisis that has been imposed since 2008 and the relocations caused by trade treaties such as NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). Following Steve Banon’s communication strategy and Marine La Pen’s protectionist discourse in France, Trump won the 2016 elections in two states, after attracting many sectors of the working class.

Since 2016, Trump has been strong in the polls and has been responsible for the economic consolidation that the country was experiencing. In this context, it carried out the largest fiscal reform unknown since the time of Reagan. But the arrival of COVID-19 and the police after the murder of George Floyd and Jacob Blake all changes.

Trump’s attitude to the killings of Floyd and Blake has led to protests against him. Millions of people have come out in the middle of riots under the Black Lives Matter claim. In late August, the riots intensified in Wisconsin after a far-right right-wing gunman shot down two activists at a rally in support of Jacob Blake. These facts have polarized society and the electoral board.

In the face of these events, Trump does not look as comfortable as in 2016. Hospitality with the ultra-right militias of the peoples of Michigan has been wrapped up in controversy over the past few weeks. The harvest of this offensive could fall to Joe Biden and for the time being the Democratic leader has taken 6 points of advantage.

Florida (27 representatives):

For years, it's the Republican jewel. Along with New York, California and Texas, Florida is the most powerful state in the presidential elections, with 27 representatives each. Cuba’s relationship with the United States as a symbol of Cuban immigration is one of the most recurring themes during the campaign between the two candidates. Historically, citizens of Cuban origin have supported Republican candidatures to take action against the Cuban government, and have often held the key to victory. However, this trend is changing in Miami’s Havana Litle, where the number of Obama’s votes in the 2008 and 2012 elections is an example.

The emergence of COVID-19 has been a major blow to the economy in which the services sector prevails. In addition to the economic crisis the State is experiencing in the field of health. The former Democratic candidate who presented this week to Florida's Vice-Management on CNN Cris King in 2018 has denounced that thousands of citizens have remained unattended after the Republican government's refusal to strengthen its health services in the face of COVID-19.

Biden, with the help of Obama, is activating the vote against Republican mismanagement. On the contrary, it has to be said that in Florida it is very common to vote for the incumbent president, and Trump has stood by for settling in Palm Beach, a luxurious Florida neighborhood. An entrepreneur and a number of Florida lobbies will do everything in their power to enable the Republican candidate to win. If you maintain your strength in the conservative North of Florida, the factor that will break the technical draw will be the vote of Latin American immigration. It is not clear whether this vote will be capitalized by Biden.

Pennsylvania (20 representatives):

Florida is, along with Florida, the state with more representatives of the EU's doubtful states. Trump was imposed in 2016, like Michigan and Wisconsin, after proposing a series of measures to address the crisis facing the mining industry. As on this occasion, the conservative leader has focused his campaign on the mining area of the city of Cambria. However, there are no signs of economic prodigy. It remains to be seen what the choice of staff linked to the sector will be.

On the other hand, Biden has a strong presence in urban centers like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh or Scranton. Voices against Trump have multiplied, especially in the African-American community, after the anti-racism mobilizations of recent weeks. According to U.S. political scientist Nate Silver, Trump will have a hard time overcoming Biden’s 6-point lead.

Arizona (10 representatives):

If the polls predicted a clear victory for Biden a few weeks ago, there has been a significant reduction in the gap between the two candidates in recent weeks. In this conservative state, more and more citizens of Hispanic origin are becoming. The anti-immigrant policies launched by Trump to access the United States and the spectre of the good access closing wall since 2016 have frightened thousands of citizens of immigrant origin. Along with them, a number of progressive State associations have launched a campaign at home to call for the Democratic candidate to vote. In the case of Republicans, the misunderstandings that Trump has had with John McCain, who died in 2018, may have their origin. Although the division is not very big, some of McCain's followers could stay home, according to Kyodo. The chances of winning in a state that has never been easy for democrats have multiplied, and Biden is in charge of taking advantage of them.

North Carolina (15 representatives):

According to Reuters, North Carolina’s grief is in a technical draw. As is often the case in Pennsylvania, Democrats dominate the urban areas of the state. If there is no strong activation of the Democratic vote, Trump’s hegemony in rural areas could lead him to win the election as happened in 2016.

Last race:

Trump, in addition to winning the elections in Florida, Arizona and North Carolina, should maintain a North East state (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minesota) that he already won in 2016. Biden, in the pocket of California and New York, would be content to reclaim an eastern state of Iparralde and win in Florida. The Democratic leader has more chances, but as in 2016, the vote of the northeastern working class will be decisive. In it, the phenomenon of the secret republican vote can be very strong. The race to the White House is even more open than it seems.