We have finally come to a situation that has never been thought out. We saw that it was coming, the cases we had heard, and yet, because of our “illusion of invincibility,” we did nothing. We didn't think anything was going to happen to us, and we're here to blame wherever you can while you're out. Phrases such as “there was no way to avoid it”, “the blame lies with the people who have brought it from other countries” can be read on social media; we cannot accept guilt in us, because it has a great psychological burden. It is uncomfortable to have that guilt in us and the unconscious system (called system 1) ejects it as quickly and credibly as possible.
Although for us this is a matter of a month (for now), the consequences of what happened in China the ministries and health governments received the first warning on the last day of December 2019 and knew the news of the emergency before 30 January. In the face of these messages, the governments of the world did the same thing as we did at first: nothing. The intention is not to blame governments, it would not be fair, because many others have done so. This intention is to understand why it has been given, what has happened to make decisions of themselves, what has happened to the citizens to explain the situations that have been given.
"Although for us this is a matter of a month (for now), the consequences of what happened in China were that the ministries and health governments received the first warning on the last day of December 2019 and knew about the emergency before January 30."
The first system mentioned above (as defined by Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow) is a system that allows us to respond quickly, easily, automatically and unconsciously. This system often leads to irrational action and that has brought us to the situation in which we find ourselves. In addition, we have system 2, which is more conscious, more controlled and slower, but thinks things twice and draws more inferences and conclusions. In my opinion and analyzing what has happened, it can be clearly observed that from the moment the emergency message was received the first system of government people from different countries was launched. Given the situation, they did not believe it was too serious, they did not interpret it as a danger and the decisions taken were irrelevant and without force. The situation became more serious, in Italy the number of cases increased and the activation of the 2nd system of our government began to give advice and for the second and third week of March they launched what we know as the “state of alarm” and what has already been heard. From there, system 1 has not influenced the government, at least significantly.
We can analyse the influence and attitude of the citizens outside the government. Everything that happened later between us, because we didn't have all the information that the government had, but the inner brain process was similar. When it started, most didn’t give it much importance; it was an idea that spread a lot “it’s a kind of flu.” We depended on the influence of system 1, we didn't see it too close, so we didn't think about it until we were alarmed. From the moment the state of alarm was set in motion, people gradually got worried; however, at first it was fear: full of supermarkets, with face masks… Irrationality prevailed in the people, who were a few people, spread throughout the country. As Borges says in the introduction of a book by Melville, ‘it is enough for one person to be irrational for others to get infected, making the whole universe irrational’. There was no shortage of reasons, hysteria and terror were imposed by the contagion effect, at a rate that we had not seen and that is terrible. After the initial upset, most have decided to use System 2 and we have stayed at home, trying to understand the situation, organizing ideas and thinking better about everything we have done.
From now on we don't know what's going to happen, the number of infections is increasing exponentially, most of the population is concerned and we haven't yet reached the maximum number of infections. The data can be consulted by anyone, starting in early March with about 100 cases and we already have over 50000 cases. In view of all the above, I remember a book that I read a couple of years ago, La Peste, by the writer Albert Camus. This book narrates an epidemic in a town called Oran at an undetermined time between 1940-1949. In Oran, dead rats started to appear, but the population didn't give them too much importance until the time when the amount was too high and even then they didn't worry about the onset of infections or diseases, but they only got rats so they weren't dead on the street. The direct consequence was another manifestation of the black death on a smaller scale. They had previous knowledge, they knew what the black death was, but system 1 was nothing to avoid causing worries. As the number increased, system 1 reasoning weakened and system 2 appeared to control the state of uncertainty, despite fear. Against this, very restrictive rules are used, limiting freedom, in order to stop the progression of the disease.
Our current situation is a fairly direct reflection of the book, praising in both cases the work and goodwill of doctors. The measures and standards that were used in history were sufficient to curb the epidemic, now we have to wait for the same thing to happen and we will gradually see the path that this pandemic is going to follow.
"From now on we don't know what's going to happen, the number of infections is growing exponentially, most of the population is concerned and we haven't yet reached the maximum number of infections. The data can be seen by anybody, starting in early March with about 100 cases and we already have over 50000 cases."
Leaving aside the pause to refer to Albert Camus, I will take the idea of the initial error again. As we have seen, we have all shown how easy it is to blame for this emergency situation, both politicians and citizens, to calm down and to dismiss criticism through social networks. All of this comes from not admitting guilt, we are all to blame for this and we cannot say no, but at the same time we are not to blame. The easiest way to explain why I say this is to retake system 1, because he is to blame (and therefore ourselves); he has made our reaction exaggerated or too quiet (turning that emotional state into action), has led to the expulsion of guilt between us as justification, so that everything feels quiet but hiding the truth. The guilt we all have is unconscious, they cannot accuse us of bad action, because it is something we cannot control; there is something we can do anyway, and that is to question the reaction of system 1 from different points of view, thinking calmly and propelling the use of system 2. This will make us aware of the real situation and we will be able to deal with fear and concern.
Finally, I do not want to end without bringing to this situation a phrase that a friend likes, because I think we are doing the opposite. The phrase reads: I’m strong enough to survive alone. I’m smart enough to want companions at my side (I have enough strength to survive alone. I'm smart enough to want my peers next to me). In this exceptional situation in which we find ourselves we have enough capacity to be alone at home, but we want the friends, the family, the couple… around. I do not mean that being with these people is bad or good, what I mean is that it is not necessary (it is something we like and want, not something we need now) for survival, and that the regrouping of the pandemic at this time will not contribute too much to the reduction of contagion. In my opinion, it is now enough for us to be with ourselves, we are able to be alone and overcome this, provided that we give the system 2 a minimum importance and a minimum presence.
Bidali zure iritzi artikuluak iritzia@argia.eus helbide elektronikora
ARGIAk ez du zertan bat etorri artikuluen edukiarekin. Idatzien gehienezko luzera 4.500 karakterekoa da (espazioak barne). Idazkera aldetik gutxieneko zuzentasun bat beharrezkoa da: batetik, ARGIAk ezin du hartu zuzenketa sakona egiteko lanik; bestetik, egitekotan edukia nahi gabe aldatzeko arriskua dago. ARGIAk azaleko zuzenketak edo moldaketak egingo dizkie artikuluei, behar izanez gero.
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