Does anyone want to move from white to gray in the South China Sea?
- The conflict between the Philippines and China is crumbling in the South Sea, where China is immersed. It is noted that until recently the tension over the remains of the Philippine warship Sierra Madre, which is intentionally stranded in the torrent of Second Thomas Shoal/Ren’ai Jiao/Fast gin, has increased to 36 miles east to Sabina Shoal/Xianbin Jiao/Escoda.
There, for several weeks, lying or suffering in the pond, is another Filipino boat, Teresa Magbanua, new in this case and the largest of those currently available to the Philippines. China considers that these waters and the reefs of Xianbin, like those of Ren, belong to its sovereignty, and that the Filipino vessel is there without authorisation, as its opinion is clearly opposed.
In contrast to the deteriorated Sierra Madre, Teresa Magbanua has complete mobility, operativity and crew. And that makes the “game” change radically in this case. China is not served by the “siege tactic” (for the detachment of a dozen soldiers there to leave the ruin) that it has imposed on the former, and which, step by step, is narrowing, in the case of the coast guard that can also be supplied by helicopter.
And that is what causes the Sabina Shoal conflict to be distorted: there have already been several clashes between ships on one side and the other. Each party, as it could not be from another party, is to blame. There has been no human loss, but there has been material damage. Clearly, China is winning hard, both because of the number of vessels it can use for persecution and, more importantly, because of its size, in the case of the largest coastguards.
But to fully understand the problem, it must be borne in mind that the United States and the Philippines, which until 1946 was its colony, have for decades a mutual defense treaty if one of them is attacked by a third party. And not only is it obvious, but in the Philippines some say aloud that that must be made possible. The role of Teresa Magbanua is easily understood.
The verbal friendship of the United States, Japan and, more recently, of the European Union is not lacking in Manila ... But from there we have to count, and it seems that in the last talks Wang Yi and Jack Sullivan have given all the time in this.
The crisis in the South China Sea, which has so far gone ‘blank’, has been said. Because it is usually white, and in the countries we are talking about, the color of the hull of the coastguards. The corresponding dividing line, with inscriptions and numbers. Although its structure is usually that of warships, armed ships are very quick, always with defensive weapons. As for the civil authorities, they are not owned by their own army, but by their command. And throughout the crisis, no “gray boat” has appeared anywhere on the stage.
The grey is the colour of warships' helmets. And that would be, almost inevitably, if American boats appeared in the South China Sea. And the gray calls the gray.
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