It is often said that it was set on fire in May 2021, in response to the coup d'état against civil power launched three months earlier by the Tatmadaw Army. But by the way, in some parts of the country it was already chronic by the fire of the insurgency.

And you can't say it's a low-intensity conflict. Although the damage estimation is very complicated, it is said that nearly 75,000 people have already died, and that three and a half million are fleeing their homes – 150,000 people to another country.

The most worrying thing, however, is that in the autumn of last year, always in the border states, the fighting has intensified following the various offensives (1027, 1107, 1111, Rakhine) launched by the largest rebel alliances. In other words, war does not go extinct, but it develops.

The last year ' s military balance would be favourable to insurgents if clearly controlled territory is taken into account. Although in these cases maps are instruments that must be handled with great caution, they remain the most expressive means, so a comparison between the early 2024 and the present is sufficient to know how far the situation of the Military Board has reached in twelve months.

Border control with neighbouring countries would be practically lost by the Naypyidawa Board, and in many of the fortifications it controls, surrounded by Tatmadawa, it would be under siege. But this same situation can last a long time, because the rebel militias have light weapons and little more by hand, and because, despite alliances, each one has its strength insufficient to fight. We must not forget, moreover, that Myanmar has a long and deep coastline, and that only the Board has a navy.

The latest news indicates that the Rebel Army of Aracan has taken the strength of the Board, in the state of Rakhine, in Ann. After Lashio, this year would be the second of the four elected. And the Arakan Army would have practically all of Rakhine's hands and the border with Bangladesh.

But it is nothing more than the opponent of the currency. On the reverse is the spectacular diversity of the insurgency that makes the ethnic diversity at its base understandable. But what really hinders not only the coexistence of future common projects, but also the short-term alliances of battle at the moment. And what the Board has been able to take advantage of, there is only one analysis of the list of aligned militias on each side.

At the heart, the two major powers of Asia, China and India, have become allies. For personal reasons, for the time being they are trying to keep the currency still. It may be the only positive clue to be found.