On 2 May 2008, the extremely violent tropical cyclone Nargis touched the dry land of Cape Mawdwin in Myanmar on its way to the east; after crossing the delta of the Ayeyarwadi River in Yangon, the former capital, and Bago, it calmed down after hitting the mountainous areas of Kayin State and losing strength. Along the way, it left about 140,000 dead; and imagine a devastation of the kind rarely seen in Asia: ruined houses, crushed rice fields, millions without food and water...

However, more than this apocalyptic destruction, Cyclone Nargis is remembered for what could be its political consequence: For the end of the military dictatorship of General Than Shwe. As devastating as the cyclone itself was the further expansion of the “democratic transition”; in fact, the social indignation that gave rise to the post-cyclone management allowed this kind of “democratic transition” to take place. And in 2015, the flood of the hour allowed Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD party to come to government. Until the coup d’état of February 2021.

In the middle of the post-war civil war, the earthquake of March 28, which had an epicenter near Mandalay, has occurred. It is too early to take stock of the damage, even at the first moment, because so far there has not even been any news of the environments that have suffered the most severe beating. But to suggest that the dead may be not only thousands but tens of thousands will not be too pessimistic, unfortunately.

In anticipation of the human and economic gloom of the tragedy, the question immediately arises to those of us who have not been able to do much more than monitor it from a distance: what will happen now in this civil war? What impact will the earthquake have? Can you expect a “nargis effect”?

It seems that the regions under the control of the military junta would have been most affected by the earthquake: it is in the hands of the military that the vast majority of the urban centers, that is, the most urbanized areas and, by the way, those that would suffer the most devastating damages of the shock. There would also have been damage in the rebel-held regions, but it could be suspected that the temptation to obtain military advantages would not be small among them; after the first days, at least no one has spoken of ceasefires and the like.

Because they have taken lessons from the 2008 chaos, the military junta has called on them not to give up foreign aid. From India, and especially from China, it seems that it is beginning to arrive quite a bit, and quickly. It's not by chance: The biggest brake on Myanmar’s civil war today is coming from these two neighbouring powers, who find it disturbing to have such a conflict on their borders. And they know it's a war that no one can win.

But with the earthquake, it could be said that not only is there a lasting peace, but also a relatively strong ceasefire is far away. The politico-military conflicts in Myanmar seem to be as persistent as the climatic and geological disasters.