Extreme heat would cause 2.3 million deaths in Europe by the end of the century
- According to the article published in the journal Nature Medicine, the increase in heat deaths due to the greenhouse effect will be greater than the decrease in death caused by the cold. In addition, even the best heat conditioning would not completely solve the problem.
The study, led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, has used data from 854 urban areas in Europe to estimate deaths from heats between 2015-2099. They also stress that the South and the East will suffer more severely from the effects of the greenhouse effect compared to the North, but that without strong mitigation and adaptation measures, deaths in most European cities would still increase.
The study foresees three scenarios for the future. The first, which is based on the Paris Agreements, is the best of the forecasts, which would entail an increase of two degrees. The second scenario is located at an elevation of two to three degrees, while the third scenario, with an elevation of three to four degrees, is located at the worst forecast. The latter is not only the worst forecast, but also a case that approaches the current situation and would generate 2.3 million more deaths.
On the other hand, if we analyze the current geopolitical context, the sounds in favor of adaptation to the greenhouse effect are the strongest, compared to those in favor of mitigation of climate change. The study defies this premise because, for them, "it is essential to continue with ambitious policies to reduce the use of fossil fuels", since the planting of green areas and trees only blurs the increase in degrees.
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