Crisis spot spreading in the Gulf of Bengal
- While the civil war in Myanmar, although totally outside the focus of our media, is continuing unabated, there has been a new political crisis in the Gulf of Bengal. In fact, youth outbreaks in Bangladesh have nothing to do with the general war that the military coup of 2021 fueled more than the Myanmar fire. But the spatial proximity and, by the way, the community of the geopolitical context suggests that each one should be cared for not only separately, but also jointly.
We must not forget that Myanmar and Bangladesh are among two of Asia’s greatest powers and, by the way, of today’s world. But without making a ‘too European’ reading: although they are neighbours of crisis areas, no one says – and I do not think they can say – that both India and China are provoking, pushing or using those conflicts. On the contrary, you could say that they are working as firefighters. Because they do not gain anything from these fights and, on the contrary, directly or indirectly, they run the risk of suffering damage of a certain severity.
These crises are very endogenous, because they stem from deep internal political problems. And neighbors can also help them fix them, rather than trying to bring coal closer to their cake. In any case, conflicts undoubtedly have a different explosivity.
Those from Bangladesh participated in the war of independence (and in part were the direct holders of genocide), a movement against the privileges of the descendants of Mutki Bahini in the independent country. However, from a deeper point of view, it could be said that there is also a movement of resistance against the formation of an upper caste that is being produced by this route. And that deserves a differentiated reflection. India’s Prime Minister, Modi, will not forget that West Bengal, a hyper-populated state that is never viciously welcoming to his BJP party, shares with Bangladesh, in addition to language, religion in more than a quarter. Following the judgment of the Supreme Court, it appears that street incidents and their brutal repression should be extinguished. But we have to see it, because only the crux of the problem is that of quotas.
The war in Myanmar is now something else. It is a global civil war and, although it can be said that there are “two parties”, it is a war with a dozen military actors aligned from one side to the other, each with its territories and population nuclei more or less controlled. Undoubtedly, the official army, the Tatmadaw, is much stronger in the army than any of the rival rebels, but the map shows that their situation is not optimistic at the moment, as it is in many places surrounded by enemies and besieged.
The conflict is already of a special nature on the border with China, in the hands of the rebels. Hence the pressure I would be exerting on Beijing to get the stress...
But, even if it is promoted from the outside, any peace is far away.
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