Before the elections it could be thought that an institutional scenario such as that of the previous legislature after Sunday could remain. And today, this is the most important hypothesis, at least by looking at what those who have the keys to governance say.

Parliament of Navarra

The Parliament of Navarre will be set up on 16 June, its first function being to set up the Bureau of Parliament. The PSN announces that it will already try to achieve the presidency of the table. In 2019 he reworked on it and left EH Bildu out of the table, but he didn’t get either, and eventually Unai Uhalde, of Geroa Bai, was the president of the parliament.

Government of Navarra

There are mainly two blocks to joining the presidency. The right and the right end have 20 votes (UPN 15, PP 3 and Vox 2); and those that have so far ruled 21 (PSN 11, Geroa Baik 7 and With You Nafarroa 3). In the first vote the candidate for the presidency needs an absolute majority, but no one can do so unless the SNP votes in favour of UPN.

Therefore, as in the second vote it is enough for the affirmative votes to be more than negative, María Chivite would be the president. Whenever EH Bildu did not vote against Chivite. That's what happened four years ago.

With what has been said so far by the parties, this is the most likely scenario, but messages have already started to appear on the scene, especially after the Spanish elections have been brought forward. On the one hand, Arnaldo Otegi points out that if in Pamplona the mayor's doors are closed to EH Bildu, then perhaps they will have to reconsider the abstention in favor of Chivite. At the moment, it seems more noisy in the negotiations, but it is a new element, because it has not been heard in the campaign.

On the other hand, it has also been heard during these days that the PSN, by order of Madrid, will make available to UPN the government so that the PP cannot use in the State the ghost of the support of EH Bildu. Today it seems a distant option, but in Navarra you cannot trust the PSN and much less Ferraz. If there is a history: The government agreement reached by the PSN and Nafarroa Bai in 2007 was rejected by Ferraz in August, in an event known as “August”. This would lead to a major conflict in the PSN, but at Sarasate headquarters they are used to swallowing PSOE orders.

City Hall of Pamplona

Cristina Ibarrola, from UPN, will be the Alcala-President of the Corporation of Pamplona, provided that she meets the previous demonstrations. Joseba Asiron could also have a chance, but the key to this is the PSN, which says it will vote for itself. So that is where Asiron's opportunity ends, because it doesn't seem like the PSN changing its mind at the last moment.

But, despite its rarity, there are other possibilities that occur sporadically in the formation of municipalities. EH Bildu has said that he will no longer accept the third way, or Asiron or Ibarrola. But it is possible that at the last moment Elma Saiz emerges mayor with the votes of EH Bildu. Very bad.

And it could also be that Geroa Bai was mayor Koldo Martinez. Very bad, but what the numbers allow, provided that EH Bildu, PSN and With You Navarra vote to him. The PSN has insisted that with EH Bildu there is nothing, but that it is prepared to reach an agreement with its members of government, which he presides over, of course. A force with two councillors would not be a joke, but it would have the opportunity to govern, even if the PSN were outside the municipal government. UPN and PP have eleven councillors and many other EH Bildu, Geroa Bai and With You Nafarroa.

It stands in vows, but a government agreement with the PSN, as has happened in the last legislature, should be highlighted right on most issues. EH Bildu has insisted that he will do his best to close the doors to the right. Now there is an opportunity in the City of Pamplona, which would not be very absorbent to Asiron and its voters, but there is the opportunity. Of course, it would need the PSN agreement to govern the city council throughout the legislature, and that may also be in the air, although de facto the opposition has been united with Enrique Maya in the previous legislature. As background to what happened in 2015 in Vitoria-Gasteiz: EH Bildu – second stop – voted for the PNV – third – to prevent the PP – first force – from bringing the mayor. Then the PNV refused to give the mayor to EH Bildu, although the coalition was already there.

In any case, they will live two crazy weeks in Navarre: on 16 June the Foral Parliament will be set up and on 17 the municipalities, and if three months after the elections the Government of Navarre had not been set up, the elections would be repeated.