Casualities
Maybe it's a coincidence. But when Xi Jinping announced that she was going to make a state visit to Vietnam on 12-13 December, the South China Sea Read has turned as if someone had incited. First, a clash between U.S. boats and the Chinese army around Second Thomas/Fastgin Shoal/Ren's "ai Jiao" joke. The subsequent controversy was jokingly between the Filipino fishermen and the Chinese coastguards, far further north. And the last, at the moment, is happening again in the Second Thomas area, between the Chinese and Filipino coastguards.
Succession can be casual. But it is undeniable that China and Vietnam are the main protagonists of the South China Sea avatars with voice and vote. And, of course, the issue will be on the table at the summit of the two parties, along with economic, technological, etc. issues, and in confusion. And that the other member countries of the coast (Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia,...) are secondary and tertiary interlocutors on this issue.
The political-diplomatic issue in the South China Sea has two main scenarios. And in both cases, today, Vietnam and China face one way or another. In the northern setting, on the island of Xisha/Hoang Sa/Paracel, the debate, in any case, should be theoretical, since for 50 years China has had total control of them and integrated them into its administrative structure, with the headaches characteristic of their conversion to tourist activity. Vietnam no longer has a presence or a chance to exist.
Another thing is the Masinloc/Huangyan joke, which is in the same latitude, but further east, 125 miles from the Philippines. Its main value lies in this proximity and location. For the time being there is no more than the sea, but we have to be blind not to see it, that China would control the sea and air traffic that diverts west of Manila and Lugo (thus from Subic Bay, if its old American base resumed)... by "tanning". Hence most or all of the tension.
This "irlagintza" will be spoken between Vietnam and China on the island of Spratly/Nansha/Truong Sa, on the south stage. There, Vietnam has conquered almost all its valuable islands. But ten years ago China already "built" seven "new islands" (three major and four minor), in sealed jokes, with dredges and excavators. Then, in them, to locate real bases and compact military detachments with ports, airports, heliports, radars, etc.
About one of them, 20 miles away, is the Second Thomas Arenal claimed by the Philippines...
It will happen. Maybe.
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