53.3% in favor of "no" and 46.7% in favor of "yes". This is the result of the referendum on the independence of the people of Kanaky on 4 October. Thus, Kanaky will continue within the French State. However, the importance of the independence vote is noteworthy: The vote for the "yes" has risen 3.4 points in two years – in 2018 the same question was asked to the Caledonians. If in 2018 the difference between 'yes' and 'no' was 18,500 votes, this year it has been 9,950.

Although they have not achieved independence, the independentists are hopeful: "We have not achieved independence today, we are going to achieve it in the third referendum. We respect today's results," said Pascal Sawa, a member of the FLNKS independence coalition. Several canas went out in the street at night, happy, dancing and singing.

The people of Kanaky are divided into three provinces and on this occasion it has also become clear that the vote is proportional to the population: in the provinces dominated by the bells, the yes has emerged victorious with a large majority: In the Loyalties Islands, 84.3% are in favor of independence (almost two more points than in 2018) and in the province of Iparralde 77.9% support the yes (almost two more points than in 2018). In the province of Hegoalde, however, it has not been imposed with 70.8% of the votes (3.2 points less than in 2018). In this southern province, European originators predominate and three quarters of the population of Kanaky inhabit it, which is a widespread rejection. However, the independence coalition FLNKS has positively valued the “great help” that he has done there.

The French State has pursued a policy of repopulation, which is currently in the minority and accounts for 46 per cent of the voters in the referendum. In this way, the main challenge for the ‘yes’ supporters will be for the Kanacas to turn to independence for the forthcoming referendum. Because without them they won't win. However, among those who are not kanak there are also some who, although in a minority, are committed to independence. The results show this. In 2018, some of them supported the ‘yes’, especially those in precarious and unemployed situations. It is too early to look at how the vote of this kind of population has been in this period, but it may be thought that the crisis has also led some non-Kanak voters to this conclusion.

As in 2018, the question “Do you want Kalhamburg-Berria to come to full sovereignty and become independent?” has been addressed to the Caledonians. There has been a great participation: 85.64%, compared to 81% in 2018.

They will convene a new referendum

The Matignon Accords of 1988 open the way and the Noumea Accords of 1998 marked the referendum on independence. Following the agreements, a third party can be organized, if the Congress of New Caledonia so wishes. Knowing that they are independentists mostly in Congress, you can predict that a third party, later, in two years' time. The French President, Emmanuel Macron, has made clear in his assessment of the results that, "if Congress asks for it", they will organize a third referendum.

As soon as the results are known, the independence president of Congress, Roch Wamytan, said that the referendum will be called, making it clear that "if he wins no, he will continue to fight for independence":

Congress will have to convene a referendum in six months and the French Government will have eighteen months to organise the vote.

In the analysis of the results, also from Bilo Rail of the Labour Party made it clear that: "The mourning for independence will never be done by the people. We are ready to speak, but the logic says that the referendum is there because it is based on a colonized people."