Although it is difficult to forecast, Valencian scientists say that the summit of confirmed coronavirus infections will take place from 10 April. The researcher at Stanford University and NASA Eneko Axpe, however, believes that this summit will take place earlier than expected. In an interview with ETB, the evolution of Hubei has resulted in a new stage. Thus, within ten days, the number of deaths per day would peak if no further serious occurrences occurred. These would be the most complicated moments, as the situation of suffering and serious tensions could also reach its peak.

We have to anticipate that as long as health workers, epidemiologists, prevention technicians and public authorities are organizing this tough fight, there will be a lot of economic and social damage. In order to reduce the latter, effective policies and actions need to be promoted as soon as possible.

How far?

The era of uncertainty is beginning and the debate on the economic damage of the coming weeks and months in the media has already opened. The Department of Labour of the Basque Government estimates that in the second quarter of this year GDP will shrink by 40%. With this calculation, UPNA professor Mikel Casares believes that the total decrease of 2020 could be 10%, according to an interview published today by Berria. These forecasts coincide with those made at European level: in the first month of confinement the current GDP will be reduced to 50% and in the two months following 25%.

In this sense, unemployment can affect half of the workforce. In Bizkaia, Gipuzkoa and Álava, the Basque Government expects some 400,000 jobs to be destroyed, according to the study. On the other hand, it is expected that some 120,000 jobs will be lost in Navarre, if there is a similar incidence. Professor of the UPV/EHU Joseba Garmendia has described as "partial confinement and measures taken during the first week" that 250,000 workers in the CAV "have lost or temporarily suspended their work". According to his data, with the implementation of the “Shock Strategy” of the closure of non-essential face-to-face activities, redundancies and work interruptions would affect nearly 600,000 people in employment.

Beyond the short-term effects, unemployment would fall significantly in 2020, according to the CEPREDE calculation for the autonomous communities, until the end of the year. If consumption stoppages were limited and current production was partially closed, more than 15,000 jobs would disappear in Bizkaia, Gipuzkoa and Álava, and less than 5,000 in Navarre. These effects would double, for example, if the suspension period were eight weeks.

Prolonging the suspension period will therefore be the key to checking whether all these forecasts are correct or not. Now, in the course of the social, health and logistical struggle, we have to deal daily with the damage caused by redundancies and temporary regulations by the interruption of production to one degree or another. We already have 13,500 temporary employment regulation (ERTE) dossiers in the CAV, affecting almost 100,000 workers. For its part, the Government of Navarra has announced 3,600 dossiers, which have not been resolved by the number of workers affected. And more is expected in the coming days, because the domino effect is unstoppable.

We must also take account of the lack of recruitment of temporary staff, as in tourist activities. The deindustrialization of the Basque economy in recent decades and the model of deficient specialization will be evident throughout the quarter. This increase in unemployment and the fall in wages and incomes will damage the purchasing power of the population and the living conditions.

A general lockdown now?

If the Spanish Government strengthens the state of alarm and decrees the productive closure of a non-basic industry, the long-term economic and social consequences will be more serious. The first industrial disruptions have already begun: Mercedes-Benz, CAF, Arcelor-Mittal, Irizar and Michelin, among others. Most of its suppliers have followed the same path. Italy promises a tighter stop to production. Here, there are many who wait for it to follow the same path; they call on governments to ensure that total lockdown is immediate and “do not play with the health of the workers”. Governments, for their part, want industry, construction and service activity not to be shut down as much as possible. The debate focuses on the economic activities that are considered essential. An in-depth analysis of the activities concerned is necessary, in the knowledge that an inadequate choice can harm health in the short term. However, the challenge is immediacy.

South Korea has followed a fast-test compromise strategy for all staff who have to move to the workplaces from the outset. Here, the quick tests are about to come. And here, the protocol criteria of the Basque Government (distance, masks, gloves, thermometers, etc.) They're not enough. Compliance with labour prevention standards must also be ensured. A proper protocol reduces the chances of COVID-19 spreading to workers, but does not guarantee their health. Agile tests are needed to test all workers in companies and put the positives in isolation at home. The aim must be to ensure the health of workers.

To do this, the massive dissemination of the tests and the control of their reliability are essential, and that is where the problem lies. In addition, it should be noted that in South Korea they have been equipped with cutting-edge means and technology and, of course, with a different model of society: the criteria and measures set out therein are not easily adapted to our society. Despite the models, it is essential to check whether all risk prevention measures are guaranteed in companies and, in the event of non-compliance, to stop economic activity immediately. The authorities responsible for the prevention of occupational risks are responsible for directing the police forces that are currently imposing sanctions on the streets of the city.

In the meantime, what do you do?

The degree of confinement is now the great challenge facing the world of work. The second is that between 10 and 15 April the SEPE will automatically pay 70% of its wages to millions of workers affected by the crisis. In this case, all companies could apply regulatory measures despite having gains or losses in the previous year. Ideally, those who had an income level above one the previous year should pay the salaries of their employees. Otherwise, we will be paying amongst all the wages of the workers of companies that have had great profits.

Today we have debated the non-payment of rents by all those affected, while there has been a growing number of voices in favour of ensuring a minimum emergency income.

As with mortgages, today we are debating the possibility of all those affected preventing the payment of rents for two months, while increasing voices for ensuring a minimum emergency income. While the government is making agreements with the social partners, we cannot forget the goal of all the neighbours and neighbours that we are in quarantine: not to collapse the health systems (our Osakidetza and Osasunbidea), maintaining strict isolation measures to delay the chain of contagion.

Governments must also provide public and private resources to health institutions and new staff, as has already been announced by both the Spanish and Basque authorities. The contingency measures of the health crisis will be adapted day by day, and we must support and accompany the people who are organising them in order to survive this situation. In addition, the public and privatized social services, dependent on the deputies and municipalities, would need determined plans to adapt to the emergency.

We need many social measures to protect workers and the grass-roots in order to deal with the situation with minimum dignity. The consequences of this crisis on companies are going to be very variable, as we know that all crises separate sex and class. What is not so evident in the levels of contagion is evident in the unequal social distribution of the effects of the emergency situation. As we are clear that in health we must protect at-risk groups, we must also make policies for the most vulnerable sectors in the economic and social sphere.

In the course of this titanic health struggle, we have to talk about the measures to be implemented in the field of work and life. By consensus among all, we must develop comprehensive public policies and social investment and expenditure actions, organizing and implementing solidarity between all and all at all levels.