Near the calapita, far from the sosiego
- If after sleeping these last twelve months, someone woke up and restarted recent things, he would surely take the feeling of déjà vu by reviewing the relationship between the two most important powers in the world at first glance. In November last year he left Biden and Xi talking about video conferencing, and this year he found Balin in a face-to-face colloquium; last year Defense Minister Austin and Wei left them seriously but in hand in Singapore and he has seen it in Cambodia. In addition, he will see that direct talks between the two major polluting powers have been agreed at COP27 and that in Blink the Secretary of State is coming to Beijing soon. So, you may think that the waters are on their way forever, with traditional avatars.
But then you have to explain to him that during this year relations between the US and China have been at the worst of the occasions of the last 50 years. And we have to wait for something similar for the coming months. Closer to calapita than to sosiego.
N. When the media and provocative trip to Taiwan in Pelosi caused the storm to erupt in early August, the storm was slowly burning for almost six months, and China made an effort to break the vast majority of politico-diplomatic relations between the two sides. But as most of us waited/wanted, three months later, after the huge culinary work that preceded the Baltic Plenary, the November talks, the deliveries of five and the rest return. However, both sides have painted their red lines with fat brushes. Of course, the Taiwanese is China's main red line.
And during this time, because of the elections, Republicans have regained control of the House of Representatives, déjà vu, you have to wait for the past for the future. Kevin McCarthy, who will become a speaker from January, announces time and again that one of his first missions will be the visit to Taipei. So ...
Is the same response expected in August when this “feat” is implemented? You will certainly have an answer. It should be remembered, however, that in August, the politico-diplomatic retaliation with the United States, which now seems to have been redirected, had two other components, the economic and the military. Against Taiwan, both. And you don't have to be too cunning to realize that the fundamental thing is the military. And in that respect, contrary to what propagandistic forage tends to say, the Beijing strategy is not to use force traumatically and as soon as possible, but with demonstrations of strength it is to the contrary, fundamentally to the Taiwan army, that it is pointless to fight.
It's an ancient question. “Fighting and winning all wars is not the highest excellence; breaking enemy resistance without fighting is the highest excellence.” (Sun Tzu, Art of War, 3).
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