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Iran, Hezbola, Red Sea… The risk of spreading from the Gaza War to the Middle East is real

  • The threat that has spread in recent weeks is increasingly real: The war that is destroying the gauze can spread to the Middle East. There are three areas to the maximum tension – through Hezbollah, Lebanon, Iran and the Red Sea – and others can be included in macabre dance: Qatar, Turkey...

04 January 2024 - 11:21
Last updated: 16:34
Iran: growing tension with the attack on 3 January

The attack on 3 January in the Iranian city of Kerman has made the atmosphere even harder. On the occasion of the commemoration of the fourth anniversary of the death of the leader of the Revolutionary Guard of Iran, Qasem Soleimani, two explosives tear and die more than a hundred people and another 210 are beaten. Soleimani was killed in 2020 by EE.UU. through a drone, and since then thousands of citizens meet each year around its wake.

The deadly attack has not yet been taken by anyone, but Iranian leaders have linked the attack to Israel and the United States. Mohammad Jamshidi, adviser to the Iranian President, pointed out, inter alia: "American and Zionist regimes are responsible for this crime and their instrument is terrorism." Ali Khamenak, the Iranian aiatola, clarifies on the same day that they will lead a "violent response". EE.UU. has qualified the defendant "absurd" and stressed that "focused on the battle against Hamas", eliminating the link to the attack.

Several sources have associated the attack with some Sunni armed groups, mainly because of the nature of the attack – two bombs in two different locations, causing both to remain in a short space of time. In addition to Israel and EE.UU, sources from the independent media Mediapartat speak of the EI-E Khorasango Islamic State group or the Jaish Al-Adl entity. However, the disaster has only exaggerated the anger against the United States and Israel.

Islamic militias around Iran are already attacking US positions in the region. These include the Islamic Resistance of Iraq that is attacking with drones.

Hezbollah: organization able to increase the force of attacks

The eve of the Iranian attack was already warming the atmosphere of the Middle East. On 2 January, Israel attacked the capital of Lebanon by killing Saleh al-Aruri, deputy head of the political branch of Hamas, and six other senior members of the group. It should be noted that Saleh al-Aruri was one of Hamas’s main partners in the ceasefire negotiations.

The attack occurs in an area controlled by the bone, a Shia militia that makes it clear that this murder will not be "unpunished". Hezbola Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah clarifies his position the day after the crime: "At the moment we are limited to the front, we are calculated, (…) but if the enemy starts the war against Lebanon, we would bring the struggle without limits and above limits." Hezbola has 100,000 trained and armed fighters, according to the Nasrallah ranes. Since the Israeli war of 2006 it has renewed and expanded its arsenal, and more than one expert assures that it is more than one militia a "real army", highlighting its ability to attack.

It has only increased tension, everything points to the fact that Israel has violated international law and attacked the capital of Lebanon. So far, hostilities are around the border, but the risk of Israel ' s capital going to the centre of attention is increasing.

The Lebanese Government is therefore trying to alleviate the situation. Foreign Minister Abdala Bu Habib has announced that they have started talks with the leaders of Hezbollah to "convince" them not to respond to the attack on Israel. The Lebanese Government is "very concerned", according to Kandice Ardiel, spokesman for the United Nations Interim Forces for Lebanon.

Red Sea: Strategic Attack Center for US and Israel

The rebels of Huthi Yemen are also armed against Israel and for the liberation of Palestine. In fact, missiles and drones are throwing at ships heading to Israel through the Red Sea. As a response, EE.UU. reported in December the establishment of a maritime military coalition called Prospery Guardian. It is a military coalition that responds to the attacks by Huthie and consists of the USA, Reyno Unidas, Bahrain, Canada, the French State, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and the Spanish State, which has determined the need for a decision by the European Union or NATO to participate actively in the operation.

The Yemeni rebels, in solidarity with the Palestinians, have fine-tuned the burdens going to Israel.

A freighter has more value than the lives of 20,000 Palestinians in ARGIA ... reports..

Qatar, Turkey... An irresponsible risk that they will also be targeted

Both in Gaza and internationally, Israel has made it clear that it will continue to head against Hamas. Do we have to understand that in addition to Lebanon, it will also channel attacks on other peoples? It's possible. Basically, a month ago, the statement was opened by Ronen Bar, head of internal security in Israel: "in all" can attack Hamas, "Lebanon, Qatar and Turkey." Materialising these statements, the risk of war spreading to the Middle East would be even more real.


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