They have a short space for the campaign. As soon as we know the results of the European elections on 9 June, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the French Parliament, setting the first round of the votes for the last Sunday of a month, which will be 7 July. They have had one week to elect the candidates and two weeks to reach a consensus on the programme and reach the electorate. Having chosen the most supposedly effective electoral strategy, they have become full members of the campaign: the leftist parties have taken precedence over unity and have formed the Popular Front; the RN Unión Nacional de Far-Right wants to achieve victory by drawing on the good results obtained by the party in Europeans, achieving alliances from the first round; and, in the middle, Macron is always looking for an unstable and greedy government. Because, at a time when the wind against your government policy is constantly hardening, you know that you have the votes to win, or better, not to lose, on the right.

According to the latest surveys, the far-right RN would be the winner with 36% of the votes, the Popular Front on the left would be the second (around 27%) and the Macron Renaissance would be the third, with a worse result than in 2022 (around 18%).

The distribution of seats in the 2022 Parliament elections was as follows: 245 for the Macron party, which lost the majority of 2017 with 106 smaller seats, NUPES 137, RN 89, with a tremendous jump of eight in 2017, 61 chairs to the right and another fifteen lefties, nine right, three centrists and eighteen other trends. It takes 288 chairs to get the absolute majority and its opposition to Macron makes it almost impossible. Why did he call the votes? In the context of the Left food on the right and the divisions that have lost strength, some claim to have defeated by causing at the height of the right end and to have stopped to recover the absolute majority. Many denounced the fact of "playing with fire", as the far right runs the risk of putting it in power. His calculation was negative: the left has done the unity and part of the Republican right has joined the RN. Basically, some tests say that was what he remembered: Bring the RN to victory to show that the extreme right cannot rule, and this as a reinstatement of Renaissance for the presidents of 2027.

Macron against the "two ends"

Insisting that the majority is essential, Macron calls both the left and the right voters, who are the conciliators: "Sociódemas, radicals, environmentalists, Christian Democrats, Gaullists", that is to say "all who are not caused in the fever of radicals". But he's lost a lot of the voters he got in 2017, and both on the left and on the right, a lot of people wanted to take him out of government.

Instead of speaking for him, he prefers to speak against his opponents. It has the left as the "far left", in front of the "extremes of Intractable France," and the panic is spreading: It is a "shameful alliance" between "non-conformists" and "non-conformists", which leads to "anti-Semitism", "communitarianism", "disillusionism", "anti-parliamentarism" and economically to the hole. To put the left at the same height as the tip of the right is the government's position: "Winning the elections the extremes would be a catastrophe for the lives of the French," says Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. The mainstream media, in the hands of the miracle Vincent Bolloré, on the far right, have done a great job in favour of this: They have created and nurtured the ghost of Jean-Luc Mélencha, situated anti-Semitism and chaos more on the left than on the far right.

It is known that all the declarations of the campaign are measures. That is why it can be stated that Macro speaks of right-wing voters: he has assumed the famous term of the extreme right and has qualified the program of the left as "wholly immigrationist." Trans people's marital status has called the free proposal "absurd" and removed it from the Consistorial House, criticizing that "project of society" that is not theirs. Despite the complaint of some leftists, it has served to occupy space in the media and reach the right and has been a winner in the calculations.

The truth is that, spinning around the Popular Front and spreading sweet words to the RN, it only weakens the "joker" of the useful vote it needs to stay in power – voting in favour of whatever seems to it to cut the way to the far right, whether it likes it or not. Because they are two-way votes: whoever gets more than 12.5% of those registered on 30 June will have the card for 7 July – they are mainly mental, because if he is a third party, in the negotiations he reaches an agreement and shows support for one of them. He criticizes the policy of the RN, but with softer words: "The RN project will not respond to your insecurity. They only say "the situation is not going well" and they do not have a miraculous response," Macron said at the press conference on 12 June. He speaks to the RN voters making self-criticism of "not having heard the anger of the citizens" and of what they want to hear: "Supporting the political system has never been my object."

What will be the picture for the second round? What will the RN call in the competition between the Renaissance Macron party and the left? Between the Popular Front and the RN, will Macron extend the call to cut the road to the far right, extending the call to "defend republican values", which is what I would ask for the mental between Renaissance and RN? Between Renaissance and the far right, for whom is the winner? What will be the position of the Republicans? There are many questions on the lens and on the eve of the first lap nothing is clear.

The People's Front, hope in union

The Socialist Party, Intractable France, the Communist Party and the Green Party Europe Ecology seemed to be the unit of cutting the way to the far right and erecting the wall in the face of Macron’s neoliberal and antisocial policy. In the case of Ipar Euskal Herria, the Abertzale coalition EH Bai has also joined the unity. The leftist parties for the Parliament elections of 1936 constituted the Popular Front to face the "risk of fascism". In the year 2024, unity has been primed by the same algiers. Beyond the discrepancies, they have agreed on a concrete programme, establishing measures for the first hundred days of governance. They propose a real change of direction, as I said at the press conference on June 14, because they will "change lives", "to replace fear with hope and sideration with construction". In the words of economist and university professor Michael Zemmour, the "change of course" can be summed up in this way the leftist programme: paralysis of anti-social reforms, increased purchasing power, recovery of wealth and improvement of the economy. To address the criticisms of an economically unbalanced programme, more than 200 economists, including the 2019 Nobel Prize for Economics, Esther Duflo, have launched the support of over 200 economists.

Convincing precarious citizens who are betting on the far right is one of the main challenges on the left. That is why the workers are working in the neighborhoods, both in the high-unemployment areas and in the working-class districts Banlieue.

Over the three weeks there has been a proliferation of calls to wager on the bloc of the left: famous athletes, associations working in the field of human rights and environmentalism, feminist organizations, Attac association that is committed to another economic model, cultural agents, thousands and thousands of citizens of the street... But malevolent, mainstream media reaching most houses are not speakers of those readings.

Right end, according to surveys, first force

During the victory party in the European elections, Macron's statement doubled the vote to the RN's militants: They had a collective moment of representation of Parliament in their hands. As we are in the last days of the campaign, they are repeating that the absolute majority to be able to govern is "indispensable". In other words, the extreme right wants to move from 89 Members to 288. One step rejected, but achievable according to some surveys: The survey of 21 June of the Odoxa house leads the survey to 250-300 Members. However, more chairs are expected. On the one hand, because the Republicans are allied with the supporters of Eric Ciotti at the head of the party in the 62 constituencies; on the other, because Marion Marechal has left the letter of the fascist party Reconquette and has started to hold the RN; and finally, because the discourse of the RN in the context of the economic and social crisis will ignite new European voters. The party has opened a new argument at the weekend: They have also called the "patriots on the left."

Photographs of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have been placed on the constituency candidates' posters because this can influence: The local candidates of the NB are not known and prefer to use the letter of known faces. As far as the programme is concerned, what is always the case: stringent measures against immigration and in favour of security, and, of course, promises which, taking advantage of the evil and despair of the citizens, would influence purchasing power (eviction of electricity bills, typification of VAT, etc.). ).

Republicans: Dispute between Macron and RN

The dissolution had 61 Members in the Republican Party and it is expected that you will still lose some seats. In electoral constituencies having a second round without a Republican, the right-wing voter will have a weight: Do they go to the far right? Are you going to fight the extreme right by reaffirming Renaissance or the Popular Front? The truth is that it is increasingly difficult to imagine this second option. What is the abstention or the blank vote?

However, the party president has met with the RN, complaining about the party, and the former head of the list for the European elections, François-Xavier Bellamy, has announced that a second round between the left and the far right would do so for the far right. They have made statements as personal votes and it is not – at the moment – the party’s slogan of vote, but it cannot be denied that it influences.

Ignorance until the day before the vote

All are aimed at abstentionists. Almost one in two voters stayed at home in the European elections on 9 June. It is clear that this can be one of the keys to the success of both. Just ten days before the vote, the vote for the prosecution had exceeded the one million barrier, six times more than in 2022. Participation may therefore be higher than usual.