Non-innocent infantilism
We barely know what's going on in Sudan -- but we seem to know why it's fixed: ego. Two generalist gallos are chained and trapped among them 50 million Sudanese. In times when you do not do much more than copy and paste, the explanation is sold in all seriousness from anywhere. Because we buy, bet: you know, in Africa ...
Would we buy a “serious” analysis that concludes that another relatively serious international problem, such as that of Ukraine, is essentially “the existing conflict” of watermelon and urli? Or that the South Sudan war itself (more than a million deaths) was an incident between Garang and the situations of Al Basir or Nimett?
Giving (very) simple explanations to complex (very) problems has another variable that for many is a compass in the sea of infantilism: the devil where, the port of hope on the other side. And when it's not clear where the devil is, try to find it. In the case of Sudan, Russia and, above all, the mercenary militia Wagner, would make the plant of evil shine... but the first thing to know is in which direction. That is the case with Israel.
What we really know is the basics or what logic tells us transversally: when a week has passed, the fights are at least very hard in Khartum; that the official army presiding over Al-Burhan is using heavy weapons (planes, artillery), but apparently without achieving a clear victory over the Janjaweed militia of Hemedti. Although control of the giant capital is decisive at the international level (and to some extent within the country) for political legitimacy, military control can be something else, especially in Darfur.
And as happened before in South Sudan, the division of the country and the plunge into a long civil war would not be negligible right now. Only in this way are the operations of emptying embassies and expelling foreign residents from Khartum announced.
Civilian foreigners will be attending flight, betting, advisory monitors in the area, not so close -- because the infantilism of some is not innocent. Because anything that can happen in Sudan has a huge impact beyond its limits.
And so far it seemed possible to have a peace agreement that would leave political power in the hands of civilians (a naïve faith was needed to believe it! ), should be regarded as definitely frustrated.
It can be a good occasion to remember the 1971 coup. Then it was the innocence of some, at least of Sudan.
The war in Sudan has led to thousands of refugees who are not going to seek, Europe is not going to set up any special care facilities or open safe corridors. The war is taking place in Africa and the 800,000 refugees that the UN has created have been gathered in neighbouring... [+]
