On March 28, the Instituto Carlos III, a reference in statistical studies of health in Spain, showed it: “The number of COVID-19 deaths is higher than officially recorded in France and Spain.” If we follow the line of statistics that this institution has been publishing since then, looking for the number of people who have actually died from the coronavirus in Euskal Herria, we find a big gap both in the Basque Autonomous Community and in Navarre.

That is, according to the dynamics of previous months and years, many more people have died in the South than expected, and that only with the deaths that the authorities have attributed to COVID-19 can this gap be completed. Therefore, many other excessive deaths that require an explanation must actually be attributed to the coronavirus.

Specifically, taking the period from March 22 to April 5, using mathematical models to predict the mortality of the population, in that period 938 people should have been killed, but in reality 1,774… almost twice as much as expected. During those days, however, the authorities recorded a total of 567 deaths from male violence. “At the moment,” says Berria, it is not possible to know how many of this rise is related to the coronavirus, but the institutions have acknowledged that they are more dead than they have said. It is clear that there are many coronavirus deaths pending.”

Between March 22 and April 5, 588 people died in Navarre, when 229 people were expected compared to March of previous years, 159% more. In the CAV, 1,186 people died, 67% more than the 798 deaths that could be expected.

The gap is even more pronounced in terms of the mortality of the elderly. According to the statistical projections, 705 people over 75 years of age were expected to die, although in reality they died in double numbers, 1,424. In the 65-74 age group, the waiting time for explanations is 73%. In the under-64 mortality rate, the gap is smaller, although it remains at 31 per cent.

According to Berria, the Health Advisor of Navarra, Santos Indurain, has recognized that there is a link: "It is clear that this disease may be related to more deaths than the official data of the Basque Autonomous Community. (...). There is a difference to consider between the confirmed data and the anomalous mortality that needs to be clarified." On the contrary, the Basque Government’s Director of Health Evaluation, Mikel Sánchez, has responded to journalists that the data are transparent and include in the list all people diagnosed with coronavirus, despite other diseases.

In addition to the collateral damage that an epidemic can cause among people with other diseases, to clarify the gap between official figures and statistics, one of the keys may be the absence of the Covid-19 tests: that many deaths have not been tested. This has happened precisely with several deaths in nursing homes.