Planes after COVID-19: they will solve the problem, but not as you expect
- Airlines have been on the verge of collapse for years and for many reasons, but the real problem, the one that is at the base of everything else, is that they need fossil fuel. Aircraft are insatiable animals: they consume about 7% of the world’s fuel production, between 20% and 30% of the operating costs of an airline supplying fuel. So far, most companies have managed to survive the avatars of the oil market, but it is clear that oil will not be able to survive forever. There is also the problem of pollution from fossil fuels, particularly as regards global warming. One of the consequences is the phenomenon called "flight embarrassment," another headache for company leaders.
If you want planes to stay in the air, you need to take away the need for fossil fuels. And that's almost impossible, at least for today's planes. In other articles I have explained the technical and financial aspects of fossil fuel alternatives. Hydrogen is a good fuel for rockets [launched into space], but not for civilian aircraft, it is a technological and financial madness. Biofuels cannot help either: they could not increase their production enough to feed today’s civilian aircraft fleet. Electric planes are a good idea for small planes, but you can't build an electric equivalent of a Boeing 747. Wide-body aircraft are optimised in terms of fuel, kerosene, which they use. They're already optimized to the end. If you spend a lot of money, this and that is refined and touched, you could earn a percentage in aircraft performance, but that wouldn't eliminate the need for fossil fuels.
As a result, airlines have responded to the problem by minimising costs, which have not been expected. This has been achieved by making passengers suffer all kinds of humiliation: full planes, long waits, unreliable flights, impossible hours, no services on land, gross food on the plane, etc. To them is added the persecution of passengers at the gates of airports: it is more like the treatment of prisoners of war in the concentration camp than anything else. Nevertheless, it seemed that travellers were glad to accept mistreatment in exchange for cheap tickets.
However, airlines have sometimes brought these solutions to the dead end: always starting to make restrictions will reach a limit. Ryanair went as far as to propose to passengers to take them on board the aircraft, although it was nothing more than a publicity stunt. And then came the coronavirus epidemic, giving a terrible blow to the airlines that were already under pressure.
It is difficult right now to foresee how passenger service can be resumed: people are so frightened that they would not accept flying if they were not seen with a safrandra with autonomous oxygen tanks. Concern may be reassured in the coming months, and it is also possible that a "health passport" will come into force to allow one to sit next to the other without fear that passengers may become infected. But in the meantime, with the industry in an extremely serious situation, you can say goodbye to the turbine rotors.
However, as I have said many times, everything that happens always has a raison d'être and the fate of the airlines was written on the wings of the aircraft. Last year, Airbus canceled its A380, the lyrium chosen for the European aerospace industry, which was a fatal blow to himself the concept of large-scale aircraft. It was already known, and the aerospace industry was already moving its efforts in another direction.
It is said that when the Titanic sank, third-class passengers remained closed on the ground floors and drowned. It is clear that these people had them because of an impediment. Today, I think elites have understood that planes don't have to have economy class. The result of this calculation is a new generation of aircraft, designed so that only the rich can use it. I mean, if we remove commoners from the boat, we'll have less pollution, faster planes, less fuel and more comfortable flights. Here's an example. Aerion AS2, supersonic aircraft for 8-12 passengers.
It is no more than an example, but the word that is now fashionable in airlines is "bizliner", designed and organised to pay attention to special groups of people who can pay for aircraft (not necessarily supersonic): politicians, businessmen, sports equipment, etc. An aircraft that we, small commoners, will never be able to use. But life is like this: flying has been a privilege for many of our generation, but nothing lasts forever. At least from now on we will not feel guilty for flying!
This article from the chemist and climate expert Ugo Bardi has been translated from his blog Cassandra's Legacy. In the ARGIA Larrun supplement "Peak civilisation": What can sink us like the Roman Empire? "Yes, it's true," he said.
