Since October 1, 2017 Catalonia has been living a sokatira between the top and bottom. When on October 10 Carles Puigdemont interrupted the Declaration of Independence of the Parlament, when on October 27 he did not order the lifting of the Spanish flag of the Generalitat or on October 30 he started his way into exile, his decisions were scared. The most well-known and vexed was the fear of the savage repression that the Spanish State had predicted against any resistance to the 155’s imposition, but a second fear, less confessed, was for those at the bottom. The convergent world since ancient times rejects social movements, informal and self-organised networks, the newly created Defense Committees of the Republic (CoR).

Since then, the hicamika between the power of the elites and popular power has been constant. Embarking on this new Republic is a window that allows for a profound transformation of society, but those of you always want to close that window. When political prisoners were transferred last June from Catalan prisons to Soto del Real in Madrid and to Meco de Alcalá, several initiatives put on the table the need to block prisons and roads to send a message of resistance to the world. Most of the prisoners, except Jordi Cuixart, dismissed these calls and the Civil Guard, who had asked for normality, planned to the last detail of the transfers. Or, at least, they communicated this and advised their lawyers Francesc Homs, Xavier Melero and Jordi Pina, who have always referred to the most conservative sectors, the middle and upper classes in Catalonia. All this was justified by the fact that the Supreme Court ' s trial had to be won and that any public order incident would be a stumbling block to the defence strategy. Time and events have gradually melted this thesis, such as raw sugar.

Good expectations were placed in the low penalties that the State Attorney General could ask for at the beginning of February. Reports by politicians and journalists in the corridors of the capital of the kingdom of Spain indicated that it was possible to reduce to two years the prison sentence requested for calling a referendum on self-determination. The environment of Pablo Iglesias reinforced this idea, but the profound Spanish reality brought it down: Oriol junqueras has been sentenced to 25 years in prison, 17 years for Cuixart, Sánchez and Forcadell and 16 years for the other members of the legitimate government of the Generalitat who cut his head. It was then said that it was better to wait for the conclusion phase, that everything would be different, especially when Pedro Sánchez won the elections on April 28 with ease. But neither. On 4 June, prosecutor Javier Zaragoza confirmed the crime of rebellion with the imposition of black on white and the severe and immovable penalties linked to it. In order to make the environment even worse, he added the demand not to grant the third grade until half of the sentence was passed: between iron, without seeing streets, between 8 and 12 years. How long will this policy of comfort last with the stick and the sweet?

The judgment will certainly be a turning point. And the response of the main political and social agents to prison sentences for putting the ballot boxes will lead us to a new scenario of disobedience or confirm that the path of the genoflexium has been chosen, which we can summarize with the phrase: the more they played us, the more we obeyed, and the more they obeyed us, the more they touched us.

Regarding the first option, Jordi Cuixart, Carles Puigdemont, Anna Gabriel or Álvaro Reim-Fachín have said that in recent months their will is to persist, not to give in, to fight, even on the street: The Catalan conflict has to be brought back to television cameras around the world, as it happened in October 2017. For the second scenario, the current leadership of ERC, with some discrepancies that have reached it since Geneva, and the PDeCAT, in an open war with JxCat, are making way to convene autonomous elections in February 2020, to clarify the parliamentary hegemony of the independentists between republicans and convergent. Without, of course, taking into account the expected rise of the Cup. In the exile of Puigdemont and without the possibility of trampling on the Catalan territory, and without the support of the leadership of the converters, Quim Torra, Artur Mas is heating the players' bench. The former president was disabled for public office for convening the consultation on 9 September 2014, but that burden is extinguished just before the beginning of 2020. Three constellations of variables are added to this state: He chose Puigdemont with his finger and owes him some loyalty, the PDeCAT does not deny his figure, because it links the heritage of Puigdemont with the failed Republic, and the establishment of the entrepreneurs takes the phone and hears it. There's the real danger, the lockdown from above, which opened from the bottom on October 1, 2017.

(This report has been published in Aktuitate gakoa magazine. If you want a full magazine you can buy it in the Argia market.)