As for the elections to the Parliament of Vitoria-Gasteiz, in the last decade Gipuzkoa has stood among the other two countries: more changes than in Bizkaia, but far from the fluctuations in power relations in Álava. The alternations in Gipuzkoa, however, have been between the PNV and EH Bildu, leaving the Socialist Party in the background for many years in the autonomic votes.
If we look at some perspective, we have to remember that in 2012 the newborn EH Bildu won the autonomic elections in Gipuzkoa, although it was almost matched with the PNV (each obtained 31% of the votes). Since then, nationalists have prevailed in the autonomic elections: by far in 2016, in the context of the creation of Podemos and the reduction of EH Bildu, and again almost matched in the last 2020 quote – 36% of the nationalist votes and 35% of independence coalitions. It should not be forgotten that the context of the last autonomic election was very special and that participation was the lowest of all times, 52% in Gipuzkoa.
It is expected that A21 will reinforce the trends of the last electoral cycle in this country: the rise of EH Bildu and the decrease in the results of the Basque nationalists. But the key will be to see how far these two trends come, namely the difference between the two sides. Because the polls assume EH Bildu’s triumph in the country, but the results of the 2023 elections also suggest that in Gipuzkoa the difference between EH Bildu and the PNV can increase, unlike the autonomic votes of the last decade.
With 70% of the votes obtained by the two nationalist parties, the rest of the political spaces are weak in the country, although their contribution is essential for the two main parties. Although the PSE-EE has a great influence from the point of view of governance, the analysis of election results places the party at the lows in the last two calls, with about 12% of the votes obtained. If these results are repeated in the votes on Sunday, we would be faced with a structural situation in the Socialist Party. On the other hand, if the results of the fragmented area called the confederal left have their importance from the point of view of alternative governance, in Gipuzkoa very few results are expected. The last issue will be participation, as Sunday will see whether the participation of four years ago was an exception or, on the contrary, a sign of a downward trend for years. Exceeding 60% of participation will be a symbolic barrier.
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27 + 27 = 54
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